Euro sold off on ECB easing

The main theme in the fx space were some big moves in euro crosses as investors reacted to the ECB’s decision to ease further.

ECB
Source: Bloomberg

As was largely anticipated, the ECB announced quantitative easing with monthly asset purchases to the tune of €60 billion a month and a target to be met in 18 months (September 2016). EUR/USD was naturally the most watched pair and it dropped to a low of $1.1317, lowest since September 2003. The euro has been an obvious trade for a while as the ECB made its intentions quite clear. Given the fact the ECB left the door open for further changes to the programme which it branded ‘open ended’ then further euro weakness could be on the way. Traders are likely to continue eyeing selling EUR/USD into strength and taking advantage of the fact it remains in a downtrend. There had been some stability for the pair ahead of the ECB meeting with support kicking in at around $1.1500. This level will now become near term resistance and could be a source of fresh shorts. I would be cautious about selling at current levels as the move appears exhausted at the moment with the RSI being deep in oversold territory. Just how low this pair can go remains a contentious issue and while analysts’ year-end forecasts are all over the place at the moment, I suspect we’ll see some revisions lower in coming weeks.

 

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