Euro in focus ahead of CPI data

The ‘risk off’ tone in global markets continued as the bad news just continued to mount in overnight trade.

Source: Bloomberg

Investors focused on unrest in Ukraine, Hong Kong and data from the US for direction. As a result, not only are markets risk-off at the moment, but constant repricing of rate hike expectations are also at play. Emerging markets are the worst hit at the moment and the trend is likely to continue in the near term. Fed members have been growing increasingly hawkish, and even some of the traditional doves have said they see the possibility of a lift off in rates occurring in mid-2015.

Out of Europe, more consumer-price index (CPI) data is due out today, with the headline flash CPI estimate expected to show 0.3% growth. Core year-on-year CPI is expected to come in at 0.9% and Draghi has always said anything under 1% would be uncomfortable. This CPI release will also help shape expectations heading into this week’s ECB meeting. EUR/USD managed to find some support at $1.2660, which is where November 2012 lows kicked in. I would consider selling any moves back into July 2013 lows in the $1.2760 region.

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