EUR/USD struggles with uncertainty

Events that are due to take place later this week may be preventing currency traders from becoming too adventurous. 

The market has had a surprisingly muted reaction to the European Central Bank cutting interest rates last week. It is possible that traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of a raft of quarterly GDP figures from European countries, as well as the Eurogroup meeting and the ECB monthly bulletin on Thursday.

Another issue creating caution may be the US and the strength of its economy, as the debate regarding what the Federal Reserve will do in terms of its bond buying plans continues. Earlier in the year the general consensus was for the $85 billion a month they currently spend to be reduced; however, as no progress has yet been made this year with the debt ceiling or the budget, this possibility is looking considerably less likely. With Ben Bernanke stepping down in 2014 and Janet Yellen taking over, this leaves much uncertainty as to how the Fed policies will shape up in coming months.

IG client accounts still indicate a belief that there is further for EUR/USD to fall, as they are 74% short.

Spot FX EUR/USD chart

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