EUR/USD is at interesting juncture

As you can see from the daily chart (below), rising trend support comes in at 1.3680 and a closing break below this trend could see good horizontal support come into play around 1.3625 to 1.3645.

On the upside, downtrend resistance drawn from the October high of 1.3832 kicks in at 1.3803 and it could be telling that the pair rallied to 1.3894 on Friday, but failed to close above the years high. While poor liquidity is obviously a key issue at present, the failed break will concern the EUR bulls who would have clearly loved to see a daily close above 1.3832.

On a fundamental basis the move higher was premised on comments from ECB member Oliver Weidmann. Mr Weidmann is well known as a hawk and has been outspoken against rate cuts and unconventional monetary easing, so his comments that lower inflation is not a licence for ‘arbitrary easing’ shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. Mario Draghi gave an interview in German publication Der Spiegel detailing that there is no urgent need to cut rates and sees no deflation signs, however there hasn’t been much of a pop in EUR/USD in early Asia trade. With EUR/USD above 1.38 it seems logical that the market has priced out rate cuts anyhow, so again these comments shouldn’t surprise too many.

So technically I am watching a closing break of 1.3803 and 1.3832, or on the downside a close below 1.3680. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are falling, but are still at elevated levels suggesting that pullbacks will be bought.

EUR/USD

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign marketing partners within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

This information/research prepared by IGA or IGA Group is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. In addition to the disclaimer above, the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

See important Research Disclaimer.