AUD squeezing higher

While renewed USD strength was the key theme in the forex space, perhaps the biggest surprise was the AUD’s resilience.

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, the AUD was the only G-10 currency the greenback failed to gain ground against. Since the RBA decided to keep rates on hold for another month, this seems to have breathed some fresh life in the AUD. Iron ore has also managed to rebound to a week high and the local currency tends to track the commodity. AUD/USD was starting to extend its gains above $0.7700 but disappointing home loans data this morning has knocked some of the wind out of its sails. February home loans showed just a 1.2% rise when the market was expecting it up 3%. China’s CPI data came in at 1.4%, ahead of estimates of a 1.3% rise. Some analysts feel this reduces the capacity or probability for officials to act but I feel it’s unlikely to have such a significant bearing given the inflation threshold is fairly high. While the fundamentals of the AUD are still mostly pointing lower in the medium term, there could be a short term squeeze into $0.7790. This level is the 61.8% retracement of the March 24 to April 2 drop. Sellers could look at fresh shorts in that region.

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