AUD looking for clarity

Focus returns to the AUD today as investors look for further clues of when the RBA might move on rates.

AUD
Source: Bloomberg

Yesterday’s minutes suggested the RBA wants more time to assess more data and the impact of the February rate cut on the economy.  The RBA is open to rate cuts but saw advantages in receiving more data including inflation to assess whether we are still on the previously forecast path. Additionally, allowing more time for the economy to respond to the February cut was echoed quite a lot. As a result, today’s Q1 CPI is very important and will likely dictate how the session progresses. The trimmed mean reading, which the RBA looks at, is expected to be up 0.6% q/q and up 2.2% y/y. Should this data be in line or better, then expect to see the AUD rally, and May cut expectations slump. To the contrary a disappointing read is likely to trigger fresh AUD weakness and AUD/USD might finally lose grip on the $0.7700 handle. All 26 economists believe we’ll get a May cut and the swaps market pricing in a 57% chance of a cut. By the end of today’s session, we’ll have a bit more clarity on the direction of rates.

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