Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

There is still no relief for silver, which remains constrained by its July downtrend, while gold is seemingly building some upside momentum. However with risk aversion not dominating in the same way as last week, the metal may struggle in the longer term.

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold buying pressure on the up

Two days of weakness have come to an end but gold still seems unable to break above the $1312 level. On the downside it seems the selling is constrained by $1307, so we have a rather narrow range developing.

The daily relative strength index is continuing to move higher however, and with the daily moving average convergence/divergence moving upwards as well, the buying pressure appears to be gaining momentum.

A close above $1312 would target $1320, with a longer-term target of $1340, while any downside for now should be limited by a combination of the $1300 level and the 50-day moving average.

Silver struggles to break 200-DMA

Silver has tiptoed towards the 200-DMA today but failed to break through. In any case, even a breach of this moving average would still need to clear the downtrend from the July highs.

With this in mind, the downside scenario in the direction of $19.75 still prevails if minor resistance around $19.90 can be cleared.

On the hourly chart there is clear resistance at $20.10, and although the intraday RSI is rising, the 200-hour MA has proved to be a major barrier since the second half of July.

Brent finds support at $104.40

With Brent still stuck in its $104-$106 trading range there has been little change in the overall outlook.

It has been over a year since we saw the commodity trade below $104 in any meaningful fashion, with the brief November dip really just a blip on the screen.

On the hourly chart $104.40 is holding up well today as support, but any break higher must clear the 100-hour MA at $105 and then challenge the 200-hour MA at $105.30.

WTI eyes $98.50

The WTI bounce from the trendline remains intact, despite some weakness today. However, the price needs to move above $98 now to be in with a chance of making real gains.

The hourly chart shows a number of hurdles that WTI will have to break, with the 50-, 100- and 200-hour MAs all in close proximity. Recent highs over the past two days have been around $98.50, so this should be the near-term target for now.

On the downside, the lows of 7 August near $96.60 will be the first target.

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