Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Little has changed in the commodity sphere, with gold and silver still under pressure and fears about geopolitics failing to enliven crude oil.

Silver ingots
Source: Bloomberg

Gold remains below 50-DMA

Although gold has stabilised in the past two sessions, it remains below the 50-day moving average. An attempt to push below the 200-DMA was halted yesterday, but the downside scenario still prevails.

Gold needs to see a close above the 50-DMA to have a chance at making any upward progress, but with the daily relative strength index still not rising and the 20-DMA still pointing lower I expect to see another attempt to break through the 200-DMA and then push below $1280.

The 200-hour moving average has acted as a nice ceiling on gains for gold, and on the hourly chart it seems evident that $1285 will be retested.

Silver below three major MAs

The dive through the 100-DMA yesterday puts silver below all three major moving averages, with a possible support line at $19.50 developing.

Beyond this the June lows around $18.70 are in focus, although the oversold reading on the daily RSI may provide a brief bounce.

Only a close back above $20 shifts the emphasis back towards short-term upside.

Brent eyes 50-hour MA

Brent attempted to breach $104 yesterday but saw buyers step in. However, there has been no uptick in the daily RSI or any other indicator to suggest this is more than a short-term movement.

Brent needs to recover $105, but for the moment the sellers still have the upper hand.

On an hourly chart $104.50 is holding well as support, but the 50-hour MA needs to be breached, and then the $105.50 level broken to indicate a rally is in progress.

$97.50 supporting WTI

The $97.50 level is holding as support in thin trade today, while $97 stopped the selling on the downside yesterday.

While WTI remains below the $100 level there is little chance of further upside, and we may soon see the 20-DMA cross below the 200-DMA, which has not occurred since the last week of March.

On the downside WTI needs to clear $97, the lows from 1 August, and a drop through here would open the way to $96, last seen in early February.

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