Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver, crude

Today looks set to add to the trend of negative moves from the EU stocks 50, as it moves into oversold territory.

Silver bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold drifts lower

Gold has begun its drift lower from $1320, after multiple attempts to break through this level. However, it is not yet an open goal for shorters, as we would need to see a drop through $1309.60 or a loss of the 200-hour moving average before the short-term view has shifted to a bearish disposition.

If we do see further losses then keep an eye on the 100-day moving average, currently around $1300, with a drop through here signaling a potential attempt to hit $1280 once more.

Silver's situation delicate 

Although still fractionally overbought at the time of writing, silver’s situation looks precarious. Indeed, a drop through $20.80 would leave the metal open to rapid losses. We have now arguably formed a descending trendline from the February highs that will cap gains on the upside.

Only a close back above $21 would indicate that the metal is on track to recover $21.50 and then $22.

Brent supported by $112 level

Brent’s loss of the 200-hour MA has seen it steadily fall back in recent sessions, but on a daily chart the bulls might hope for some help around the 20-DMA.

This is a market that should see $112 as support, with $109.30 also being major support as the 50- and 100-week moving averages come into the equation.

An ability to hold above $112 would still signal that this market wants to retest $115, particularly if newsflow from Iraq turns more negative.

$105 level key for US light crude

NYMEX’s steady oscillation around a trendline continues, but on a weekly chart the picture is remarkably supportive of future gains, provided $105 can hold.

$105 really is the ‘line in the sand’ here, as a loss of this would imperil the uptrend for the first time since the beginning of the year.

A move higher would target $107, with a potential long-term target around $110, particularly if economic growth in the US experiences a bounce back from the dismal Q1GDP reading.

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