Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

Crude prices continue to tumble as risk sentiment wanes ahead of the EU referendum. However, despite this flight to safety, gold is seeing some weakness at a major resistance level. 

Oil barrels
Source: Bloomberg

Gold near intraday double-top neckline

Gold has been trading largely sideways over the past 24 hours, following a rally into the crucial $1248 resistance level (March 2016 high). With that major level in mind, the $1277 level is going to be key this morning, as a break below this would create a bearish double-top formation.

However, with the market clearly within an uptrend, there is a good chance we could see a bounce from this area. As such, watch out for a closed hourly candle below $1277 for a signal that we could see further downside. Conversely, should it not break, we could see a bounce back towards $1284 resistance.


Brent falls towards key Fibonacci supports

Brent is looking likely to see another leg lower this morning, in a continuation of the weakness we have seen over the past four trading days. Crucially we still remain within an uptrend on the medium-term and thus the 76.4% retracement ($49.69) looks like an interesting area for a potential long view.

While the short-term looks likely to see losses, this medium-term bullish view is in play unless we see an hourly close below $48.67. 


US crude pushes towards crucial support level

WTI is continuing its ascent towards the $47.94 level today, in a move which threatens to derail the uptrend in place over recent months. However, until that actually happens, we still remain within a medium-term uptrend and thus be aware of any potential reversal higher.

Yesterday saw a substantial rally, which has subsequently subsided. Could this be indicative of a potential rally? For the short-term, the bearish view holds. Yet the medium-term bullish picture means we could see a bounce, with $48.55 and $48.18 still to come before the critical $47.94 level.

US crude

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

This information/research prepared by IGA or IGA Group is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. In addition to the disclaimer above, the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

See important Research Disclaimer.