Trading the Trend: long USD/JPY

(Video Transcript)

Long Nasdaq 100 provided opportunities

Good morning and welcome to Trading the Trend on Wednesday, 13 September 2023. At the end of August, we had a long trade on for the Nasdaq 100. And for those of you who didn't manage to jump onto it, there was another opportunity last week to do so, and our entry level was at 15,220.

So either you got out of that trade with around 245-point profit here, or you could now raise your stop loss level to break even, basically meaning that if you were to get stopped out, you wouldn't lose any money. So that trade is done now.

Early results scupper Tullow Oil trade

And then last week I thought it would be a good idea to go long Tullow Oil and basically on the idea that the oil price continues to rise, which it does, and that we've been in an uptrend since May of this year with regards to Tullow Oil.

Also I thought it would be a good idea because the oil company recovered very well after having had a sharp sell-off of about 12% when there was a military coup in Gabon, which is one of the countries where its oil exploration is taking place.

But what I hadn't factored in is that first-half results came out earlier this morning and first-half revenue at Tullow Oil fell by 9.5% to $777 million, and pre-tax profit also fell by 61%.

And on that news, the Tullow Oil share price dropped by more than 10%, as you can see here, and hit the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32.7p so far, which holds together with the May to September uptrend line.

So we are still in this trade because our stop loss is below the last reaction low. And that was made at 31.50p. So nothing changed with regards to this trade. We still have the same stop loss in place for this one.

Long USD vs JPY

This week's Trading the Trend is to go long the US dollar versus the Japanese yen and we can use the latest small retracement we saw to ¥145.91 as our entry level.

Now that we have broken out of an inside a day or Harami pattern here on the daily candlestick chart and you can see here we are in a very strong uptrend and it is quite likely to continue, especially since we've held above the June lows at ¥145.07, which should offer really, really good support.

So we could now properly target the sort of ¥149 to ¥150 area on this trade.

So this week's Trading the trend is to go long USD/JPY and do so with a tight stop loss at around ¥145.90 and an upside target of between ¥149 and ¥150.