Oil prices finish higher on fundamental updates
Technical overview remains volatile with retail trader buy bias dropping on price gains.
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Oil WTI technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
As it wasn't an oscillatory session like last Tuesday (the bulk of movement in one direction, up), we got a move past its previous first Resistance level. Earlier this morning, moves got closer to its previous second level with conformist buy-breakout strategies winning out while contrarian reversals got stopped out.
In no way has it changed its current daily (and weekly) time frame with a technical overview that’s volatile even if plenty of its technical boxes are flashing green and combined with a trending ADX (Average Directional Movement Index).
Events to watch
- The CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) pipeline disruption impacted 1.2m barrels with Russia's Novak saying oil supplies through it could be stopped by up to two months.
- Inventory data out of EIA (Energy Information Administration) shows a 2.5m barrel decrease with gasoline down 2.9m and a drawdown for distillate of 2.1m.
- Russian demands for payment for gas sold to "unfriendly" countries with key natural gas contracts in the US and Europe finishing yesterday’s session higher.
- Further sanctions are expected to be announced following summits over the next two days.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI
As for sentiment, majority buy 57% amongst retail traders as of yesterday morning has dropped to a slight buy 52%. Thanks to the price gains with longs enticed into closing out and some fresh shorts initiating.
(CoT speculator bias is as of last Friday’s report in what has been consistent extreme buy bias amongst them and visible on the chart below in the green-dotted line as % long bias amongst them).
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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