CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure. CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure.

Moderna share price: Q1 2021 results preview​​​​

We look at what to expect and how to trade the upcoming Moderna Q1 2021 results.

When is Moderna’s earnings date?

The Moderna earnings release date is scheduled for 6 May 2021. The results will cover the group's quarter one (Q1) financial year 2021 (FY21) earnings (January to March 2021).

Moderna results preview: what does the Street expect?

Moderna has said that 2021 will be a pivotal year for the group's future success as years of research now move to profitability with commercial operations now well underway. The company’s improved cash flow is now allowing for increased scalability, evident in recent news that the Massachusetts manufacturing facility will see its 300,000 square foot operations expanded to more than double its current floor space.

Project priorities indicated by the group in 2021 include:

  1. Maximising the impact of Moderna Covid-19 vaccine access and the value creation of this product between now and the end of 2021
  2. Accelerate vaccine development to advance their pipeline and bring new vaccines to market
  3. Generate human proof-of-concept data in autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases, oncology and rare diseases
  4. Continue to expand the use of mRNA technology to maximize the potential impact they can have on patients

Investors will look to Moderna’s progress regarding the aforementioned goals. In terms of the upcoming results, ‘the Street’ arrives at the following consensus estimates:

How to trade Moderna Q1 results

The two graphics below provide traders with both a retail short-term view on the stock, as well as an institutional longer-term view on the Moderna share price, as to how market participants are positioned ahead of the Q1 earnings release.

A Refinitiv poll of 16 analysts maintain a long-term average rating of ‘hold’ for Moderna (as of 4 May 2021), with two of these analysts recommending a strong buy, six recommending a buy, five hold, three sell and zero strong sell recommendations on the stock. The long-term price target mean from these analysts of $175.50, suggests the current share price to be trading at a 3% premium to the suggested fair value.

From a retail trader perspective (as of 3 May 2021), 86% of IG clients with open positions on the Moderna expect the share price to rise over the near term, while 14% of IG clients with open positions expect the Moderna price to fall.

Moderna share price: technical analysis

The Moderna share price currently trades in a broad range over the medium term between levels $117.10 (support) and $189.25 (resistance). In the short term, we are seeing a bearish price reversal forming at resistance of this range. The bearish reversal is supported by an overbought signal on the stochastic oscillator. The bearish reversal at resistance whilst in overbought territory suggests short-term weakness with $156.95 the initial support target. Traders who are short might consider using a close above the $189.25 level as a stop loss indication for the trade.

Summary

  • Moderna Q1 FY21 results are scheduled for release on 6 May
  • Group revenue for the quarter is expected to be realised at $2.04 billion
  • EPS for the quarter is expected to be realised at $2.39
  • The majority of IG clients with open positions on Moderna expect the price to rise in the near term
  • A technical analysis view on the Moderna share price shows a short to medium-term rangebound price environment, with the price overbought at resistance

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

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