Impact of US tariffs on ASX copper stocks

Spotlight on copper

In this week’s edition of IG Macro Intelligence, we take a deep dive into United States (US) President Trump’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on all copper imports and which Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) stocks to watch.

Fair cop

US copper prices spiked to record highs in the aftermath of President Trump’s announcement to impose a 50% tariff on all copper imports from 1 August.

Prices of copper had already spiked 25% this year amid stockpiling after President Trump announced an investigation into potential tariffs on copper back in February. However, traders were anticipating a smaller 25% tariff.

Copper price chart

COMEX copper rose to US$5.6820 per pound, or US$12,526 a tonne, rising almost US$3000 or close to 30% above the global London Metals Exchange contract.

Copper imports are roughly 850,000 tonnes per year, while usage is about 1.6 million tonnes. Justin Lin of Global X ETFS stated: 'No matter how much they import now, they're going to run out over the next three years.'

Conducting gains

Aside from diversified heavyweights like BHP Group, Rio Tinto, and South32, the ASX hosts several pure-play copper miners.

Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) 

Sandfire Resources has outperformed with a near 20% rise year-to-date (YTD).

Shares appear to be in a long-term uptrend as confirmed by multiple indicators on ASX Tradewatch data. Specifically, the 20-day and 200-day moving averages are both sloping upwards – signalling Sandfire can rally in both timeframes.

Sandfire Resources daily chart

Most analysts suggest holding Sandfire at current levels with the average price target of $11.16 only 1% off current prices.

UBS is most bullish on the stock, recently upgrading its target price to $19 – tipping financial year (FY) 2026 earnings per share (EPS) could rise by 58%

Sandfire Resources historical trends and price targets

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC)

Capstone Copper has not performed as well as Sandfire YTD.  However, many analysts are upbeat about the outlook for the mid-tier producer, which is engaged in the production and exploration of copper in the US, Mexico and Chile. It is a dual-listed company with its primary listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Capstone Copper daily chart

Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial highlights production increases from Capstone are about 25 to 30%, contrasting with Sandfire Resources's 15%. Additionally, their mines have a substantial lifespan, '25 years and then 19 years for their Santo Domingo mine.' Considering all those dynamics, Wayne feels 'there's far better relative value on offering something like Capstone than there is in Sandfire at the moment.'

Capstone historical trends and price targets

Mac Copper (ASX:MAC)

Mac Copper is another dual-listed stock. Based in New Jersey, it focuses on metals and mining assets essential to global electrification and decarbonisation. It operates the CSA Copper Mine in Cobar, New South Wales.

Johnathan Tacadena from MPC Markets states the company produces 40,000 tonnes annually and employs 500 people. With a market capitalisation of 710 million and revenues of 336 million, it offers 'pure copper exposure.'

Mac Copper daily chart

The average broker recommendation on Mac Copper is a 'buy', according to Refinitiv, with a price target closer to $20 – suggesting it can rally another 9%. ASX Tradewatch data show Mac Copper is in a strong bullish trend, with the 5-day MA above the 50-day and both the 20-day and 200-day MA moving higher.

Mac historical trends and price targets

Global X’s Copper Miners ETF (ASX:WIRE)

Gaining exposure to copper via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is another option for investors.

Global X’s Copper Miners ETF is the only Australia-listed ETF offering exposure to copper miners and has seen a surge in investor interest since Liberation Day.

According to Global X investment strategist Justin Lin, WIRE recorded its strongest quarterly inflows since the third quarter (Q3) 2024, attracting $23.7 million in the second quarter (Q2) 2025. This is up from $3.2 million in the first quarter (Q1) 2025 and reversing $2.7 million in outflows from the fourth quarter (Q4) 2024.

Cu later

Global manufacturing leaders are urgently seeking clarity on Trump’s tariff policy ahead of the planned 50% levy on copper imports as their inventories dwindle and deadlines for existing contracts approach.

Analysts have warned that permanently elevated copper tariffs could significantly impact prices and demand, given the metal’s critical role in electric vehicles, semiconductors and defence systems. However, there’s also the chance that this is another example of the 'TACO trade' – where President Trump reverses course ahead of the upcoming deadline.