CFDs are complex financial instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex financial instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Hang Seng Index: Year-end attempt to overcome key 200-day moving average

At the time of writing, the Hang Seng Index has jumped more than 500 points or 2.75% higher into today’s session.

Hang Seng Index Source: Bloomberg

Hang Seng Index: Authorities’ focus on economic growth finding further validation

At the time of writing, the Hang Seng Index has jumped more than 500 points or 2.75% higher into today’s session. Strength among its constituents NB has been broad-based, with gains in technology, property and consumer-related sectors. The Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Properties are up 4.6% and 1.9% respectively, with the authorities’ ongoing shift in focus towards economic growth finding further validation into today’s session. The State Council stated that China will step up efforts to implement pro-growth measures, with more financial avenues for its property sector, further implementation of fiscal support in 2023 and mechanism for US-China cooperation in audit supervision for platform companies.

Previously, guidance for policy support from authorities has been largely shrugged off or was met with lukewarm market reactions at best, as its tough zero-Covid stance was largely viewed to be standing in the way for any successful implementation. That has since changed when China pivoted towards a gradual economic reopening. That reopening optimism is present in today’s risk-on session as well, with consumer-related stocks such as Haidilao (+8.9%), Li Ning (+6.8%) and Shenzhou International (+6.6%) being the top performers.

What’s next?

China’s reopening narrative has drawn in a lot of market optimism, which came after Chinese equities’ prices have been beaten down to its multi-year low, and valuation are relatively attractive both on a historical basis and against their global peers. These optimism could still face some near-term pushback if economic data over the coming months failed to meet market expectations, as intermittent virus waves may run the risks of limiting consumer spending recovery and disrupting proper functioning to its workforce. The upcoming Lunar New Year period (travel rush starts from 7-21 January 2023, actual festive period is 21-27 January) will also be on watch with almost-certain spikes in virus cases after the people are deprived of a proper celebration over the past two years.

Nevertheless, the step towards economic reopening and shift in authorities’ focus toward growth may be a positive development over the longer term. Room for corporate earnings to improve when Covid-19 risks eventually abate may call for some upward valuation re-rating and provide catch-up to its historical average.

Technical analysis: 200-day MA being retested

After facing heavy resistance at its 200-day moving average (MA) since early-December, today’s upmove marks another retest of the key MA-line, which is generally looked upon as an indication of longer-term trend. It seems that equity bulls are attempting to shrug off the bearish crossover on its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and tapping on the relatively lower-volume, limited catalysts year-end period to set the tone into 2023.

Hang Seng Index Source: TradingView
Hang Seng Index Source: TradingView

Since November this year, the index has been trading on a rising wedge pattern, with the series of higher highs and higher lows supportive of an upward bias for now. On the downside, the lower wedge trendline may be on watch for any near-term support. A greater area of support may be at the 18,550 level, which marked a key Fibonacci confluence zone.

Hang Seng Index Source: IG charts
Hang Seng Index Source: IG charts

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

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