Gold partially recovers on USD weakness while oil edges higher
CoT bias remains a consistent extreme buy for the energy commodity, heavy buy for the precious metal despite a reduction in long positions.
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Gold technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
A lift off the lows for gold prices as the greenback retreated in the forex market.
Short-term yields mixed in terms of their finish while the ten-year finished higher, central bank speak out of the Federal Bank with member Williams and notes from today's Chairman Powell testimony allaying fears of monetary stimulus withdrawal while simultaneously reiterating transitory inflation in an attempt to prevent further risk-off moves. The technical boxes in this time frame (and for plenty of products priced against the greenback in the forex market) are showing negative bias on last week's moves.
But should volatility persist, prices could easily go beyond key short-term levels, and combined with a trending ADX (that is absent in the weekly time frame) prices may not necessarily move back towards an average in the mid-term.
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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold
CoT speculators are just shy of extreme buy bias on a reduction in longs by 14,834 lots and a rise in shorts by 2517, and remain heavy buy silver at 71%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
ETFS Brent Crude prices avoided last week's carnage with moves that were relatively rangebound and a higher finish for the week.
The rebound in risk appetite has made fresh highs with prices above its previous short-term resistance level, and the technicals, while not as bullish in this time frame as the weekly, are still technically a bull trend that on most days (yesterday aside) are offering little momentum beyond key levels.
Negotiations paused and a weaker dollar in yesterday's session gave it an added boost, and in oil data we've got API readings tonight following a drawdown last week that wasn't too far off Energy Information Administrations more encompassing estimate.
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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI
As for sentiment, CoT speculators upped long positions and simultaneously reduced short positions, pushing extreme buy bias in the energy commodity a notch higher to 83%. Retail traders were cautious prior to last week about selling into price gains, but they're shorting more now taking it to a heavy 66%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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