FX: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD finish lower
Relative greenback strength in the FX market infuses all three with more negative technical bias, retail sentiment majority buy.
EUR/USDTechnical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Another red day for EUR/USD's price though failing to reach either of yesterday's key levels, a brief move lower as of writing just beneath its previous 1st Support level. The technicals remain mostly in the red on the Daily, a negative DMI cross occurring yesterday, and in turn infusing the pair's price with more negative technical bias - Even if it's ADX isn't showing a propensity to trend just yet, the breach of its short-term ~1.1840 support level while its long-term ~1.1800 level holds for the time being.
Preliminary PMIs impressed for the bloc and in some cases sizably, services edging nearer to the 50 level though still below it. The SNB's monetary policy announcement is today that'll likely keep the franc lively, for the Eurozone we've got the ECB's Lagarde speaking again, and a virtual conference of EU leaders to discuss vaccine roll-out, geopolitical issues, and digital strategy. Economic data is expected to be low-impacting.
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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for EUR/USD
EUR/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
GBP/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
With the greenback relatively outperforming in the FX market again, it was another red finish for GBP/USD's price, tilting more of its technical boxes into the red and infusing it with negative technical bias, the question still on whether the greenback has more room to rise.
Conformist buy-on-reversal strategies relatively outperformed on a lack of follow-through beyond its previous 1st Support level, but should volatility pick up significantly and expect contrarian breakouts to have their day.
UK data showed CPI figures grow at a slower than expected pace, PPI output above estimates, and RPI a miss. The real beat was on the preliminary PMI front, both manufacturing and services expanding, the latter emerging from contraction. Plenty of US data today as well as more central bank speak, for the pound there's the BoE's Governor Bailey speaking today and retail sales tomorrow.
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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for GBP/USD
GBP/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
AUD/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Although it was another fall for the AUD/USD where its price crossed and closed beneath its 100-day moving average with a negative DMI cross occurring and another technical box tilting red - The moves were within its previous levels and failed to offer a play, its price hovering near a short-term support level last seen in early February.
Its short-term negative technical bias breaking against long-term stalling positive bias with attention on where the greenback will settle. Manufacturing PMIs impressed yesterday almost across the board with healthy above-50 readings, a lack of Australian data today and tomorrow leaving the focus on the greenback, commodities, and general risk appetite.
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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for AUD/USD
Retail traders are majority long all three FX pairs against the greenback, the majority buy bias rising in GBP/USD, dropping in EUR/USD, and unchanged here since yesterday morning (they are majority long USD/CHF, USD/CAD, while majority short USD/JPY).
AUD/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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