CoT bias in gold and silver drops slightly but remain in heavy long territory

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The overview at the start of last week was volatile, and gold prices stayed true to that surging beyond last week's Weekly 1st Resistance to breach $1,600 before dropping back down briefly past its 1st Support level. All its main technical indicators on the weekly are flashing green, and while geopolitical tensions have dropped they will continue to remain a factor moving forward, and likely influence gold prices in the meantime.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold

Volatility aside it’s a bull trend technical overview where all its main indicators are flashing green, and where trader bias is majority long, with retail bias up 8% at a heavy long 70%, and larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report dropping slightly but remaining in extreme long territories at 86% on a larger increase in short positions by 7,494 lots outdoing a smaller increase in gold long positions by 1,860 lots.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Silver prices were in for a volatile week, however last week’s Weekly 1st Resistance level held after briefly getting breached, and given the impact has been larger in oil and gold who’s overview is more volatile, pivot points here have been more consistent in holding in the face of sizeable moves. The gold/silver spread rose slightly over the course of last week, as silver relatively underperformed compared to its precious metal cousin.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver

Retail bias remained in extreme long territories and down only 3% on last week’s 90% bias, while CoT bias has dropped 2% on an increase in short positions by 5,389 larger than the increase in long positions by only 2,914 lots. The bias here while heavy is nowhere near the extreme long bias held in gold (at 86%), platinum (at 87%), and palladium (at 78%).

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with gold, the technical overview last week was volatile anticipating a break of its main pivot points, and in that regard it didn't disappoint, breaking below last week's Weekly 2nd Support level. From a technical standpoint – and it means much less in the current context – its main technical indicators remain relatively positive on the weekly. In terms of data, conflicting inventories data out of API and EIA last week with the former posting a sizeable deficit and the latter a slight surplus, and on Friday Baker Hughes US oil rig count dropped to 659 from 670 prior. Geopolitical tensions will remain in focus even if they don't rise, and will be a constant factor that could send oil prices moving significantly in the days (and weeks) ahead.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Retail bias here shifted from a slight majority short 54% at the start of last week to a heavy long 74% at the start of this week, while CoT bias is unchanged at an extreme long 90%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

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