Bitcoin may reclaim 20,000 as APAC traders eye Australian jobs data
A red-hot US inflation report dragged on market sentiment overnight; Australian jobs report on tap as AUD/USD struggles to rebound and BTC/USD bulls probe the psychologically important 20,000 level.
Thursday’s Asia-Pacific outlook
Market sentiment took a hit overnight after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 9.1% y/y, beating estimates. US stocks fell, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) posting a 0.45% loss. That pushed the 10-year/2-year yield curve’s inversion to the deepest level since 2007, intensifying fears over an economic slowdown.
Crude oil prices rose but remain deeply negative following Tuesday’s sharp decline. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.25 million barrel build in crude oil stocks for the week ending July 8. Analysts were expecting a draw of 154k barrels. Gasoline stockpiles rose nearly 6 million barrels, hinting that consumer demand may be ebbing amid historically high pump prices.
The Australian jobs report is due out today, providing a potentially high-impact event. The headline figure is expected to show the addition of 30k workers and a tick lower in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, according to a Bloomberg survey. A stronger-than-expected report may bolster rate hike bets for the RBA’s August meeting.
That, along with higher iron ore prices, may see AUD/USD move higher in today’s session. The next high-profile event for Australia is the second-quarter consumer price index due out on July 27. Mr. Lowe’s central bank may deliver a 50-basis-point rate hike next month depending on what that CPI print shows. For now, bond traders appear confident in the RBA, with yields well below last month’s levels.
Notable Events for July 14:
- Singapore – GDP Growth Rate (Q2)
- Japan – 20-Year JGB Auction
- Japan – Industrial Production Final (MAY)
BTC/USD technical outlook
BTC/USD is trading higher after falling for three days. Prices found support around the June/July lows, but bulls haven’t been able to clear the psychologically important 20,000 level. The 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that limited an early-July rally may shift into focus if prices break higher.
BTC/USD daily chart
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