Netflix Q2 2025 earnings preview: can ad growth and live sports drive the stock higher?

Netflix is scheduled to announce its second-quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings, with analysts anticipating continued strong performance building upon the company's robust first-quarter results.

When is Netflix reporting?

Friday, 18 July at 6.00am AEST

Netflix will report its Q2 2025 financial results before market opening, providing investors with key insights into the streaming giant's advertising revenue growth and content strategy performance.

Q2 2025 consensus estimates

Analysts have set the following expectations for Netflix's second-quarter performance:

• Revenue of approximately $11.048 billion, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year (YoY)
• Pre-tax profit of $3.55 billion, representing a 41% YoY increase
• Earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise to around $7.07, up from $6.61 in the previous quarter.

This projected growth is attributed to the expansion of Netflix's ad-supported tier and its ventures into live sports programming.

Ad-supported tier driving growth

The ad-supported subscription model, introduced in 2022, has significantly contributed to Netflix's revenue streams. By early 2025, this tier had attracted 94 million monthly active users, up from 40 million the previous year. Trading platform users should note that the company's proprietary ad technology, Netflix Ads Suite, delivers personalised advertisements with a low ad load, enhancing user experience. Netflix aims to double its ad revenue by the end of fiscal 2025, targeting $9 billion by fiscal 2030.

Live sports and content diversification

In addition to advertising, Netflix has been investing in live sports content, including events like WWE matches and NFL games. These initiatives are part of the company's broader strategy to diversify its content offerings and attract a wider audience.

Investors may consider how this expansion could impact long-term subscriber retention and engagement. The move into live sports represents a significant shift from Netflix's traditional on-demand content model.

Analyst sentiment and valuation concerns

Despite these positive developments, some analysts express caution regarding Netflix's high valuation, with some analysts recently downgrading the stock from "buy" to "neutral", citing that much of the anticipated growth may already be priced in. According to LSEG Data & Analysis and as of 10 July 2025, the majority of analysts retain their 'strong buy' or 'buy' ratings, though.

Netflix LSEG data & analysis chart

Netflix TipRanks Smart Score 

Netflix has a TipRanks Smart Score of '6 Neutral' and is rated as a 'buy' with 28 'buy' and 10 'hold' recommendations (as of 10/07/2025). The firm estimates a less than 10% upside over the next year, suggesting that Netflix needs time to execute its growth strategies effectively.

Netflix TipRanks Smart Score chart

Investment considerations and outlook

Investors will be closely monitoring the upcoming earnings report for insights into Netflix's performance and future outlook. Particular attention will be paid to advertising revenue growth and expansion into new content areas. Share dealing investors should consider the company's ability to maintain subscriber growth while successfully monetising its ad-supported tier. The streaming market remains competitive, with Netflix needing to balance content investment with profitability targets.

Technical analysis of the Netflix share price

Online trading participants should note that as of 9 July 2025, Netflix's stock is trading at $1,275.31, close to its late June all-time high at $1,341.15. 

A rise above the recent all-time high may lead to the $1,500.00 region being targeted and reached before year-end. The short-term uptrend is deemed to be intact while the support zone, made up of the early May highs and late May-to-June lows at $1,180.61 to $1,159.44, holds. The long-term trend will technically remain bullish while the Netflix share price stays above its April trough at $821.10.

Netflix daily chart