Australia 200 afternoon report: 3 July 2025

The Australia 200 trades 13 points (-0.16%) lower at 8583 as of 2.15pm AEST.

Record highs face pressure ahead of pivotal US jobs report

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) found the air above 8600 too thin today, slipping 80 points (−0.92%) from the day’s high of 8623.6 before buyers emerged just ahead of yesterday’s 8536.7 low.

Today’s decline follows a record closing high yesterday and comes ahead of tonight’s crucial United States (US) non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which will shape expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts into year-end..

In the lead-up to the NFP, the ADP employment report released overnight presented concerning signs of US labour market weakness as private employers shed 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first negative print since March 2023.

A similar weaker-than-expected NFP number today would pull forward expectations of Fed rate cuts, providing US investors with an extra spring in their step ahead of the Independence Day long weekend.

Australia 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

Interest rate-sensitive and consumer-facing stocks led declines despite growing expectations for global rate cuts.

• JB Hi-Fi dropped 3.93% to $108.24
• Harvey Norman lost 2.2% to $5.34
• Premier Investments declined 2.1% to $20.02
• Myer Holdings eased 2.1% to $0.72

Energy sector

Crude oil rose 3.05% to $67.53 overnight, following Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the IAEA, restoring a geopolitical risk premium to the market.

• Viva Energy added 1.6% to $2.23
• Woodside Energy lifted 0.73% to $23.99
• Ampol edged 0.23% higher to $25.84

Financial sector

Banking stocks were broadly lower:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 1.74% to $180.47, now 6% below its $192 record
• Macquarie lost 1.6% to $225.41
• NAB slipped 1.42% to $38.76
• Westpac eased 0.73% to $33.47
• ANZ bucked the trend, gaining 0.2% to $29.97

Healthcare sector

The sector outperformed on deal flow and technical rebounds.

• Pro Medicus jumped 8.56% to $309.63 on winning two major US contracts worth $190 million
• CSL rose 1.04% to $242.26, rebounding from a multi-year support zone between $230 and $240

Materials sector

Investors rotated into the big miners, supported by a 2.5% rise in iron ore to $95.55 overnight after Chinese officials warned against 'disorderly low-price competition' in sectors including steel.

• Mineral Resources surged 6.66% to $24.19
• BHP rose 4.41% to $38.85
• Rio Tinto gained 0.95% to $109.33
• Fortescue climbed 0.97% to $16.13

Australia 200 technical analysis

After the Australia 200 hit a new record high of 8639 earlier this month, we noted that the relative strength index (RSI) was at its most overbought level since December 2023, which was followed by a 4% pullback.

The 2.5% pullback since then into last Monday's 8421.1 low helped the index work off overbought readings and was orderly, even begrudging, which indicates the move lower was a correction rather than the start of an impulsive move lower.

In summary, provided the Australia 200 holds above support at 8420 – 8400 on a sustained basis, the view is that the correction from the 8639 high is complete at last Monday’s 8421.1 low and that a retest and break of the 8639 high will likely be forthcoming.

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 3 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}