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Dollar weakens ahead of US CPI, driving EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher and weighing on USD/CAD

​​Nervousness ahead of today’s US CPI reading has weakened the dollar, continuing the recent theme of strength in EUR/USD and GBP/USD and weakness in USD/CAD.​

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Written by

Chris Beauchamp

Chris Beauchamp

Chief Market Analyst

Publication date

​​​EUR/USD bounce continues

EUR/USD has enjoyed a healthy bounce from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and sits at the highs seen in June.

​​The breakout from trendline resistance from the June high has put the buyers back in charge, and now a move back to $1.11 seems to be in the offing. Above this the price will create a new higher high, reinforcing the uptrend.

​​A reversal back below $1.085 would be needed to negate the near-term bullish outlook, and could then see the price head back to the $1.07 level.

EUR/USD chart Source: ProRealTime
EUR/USD chart Source: ProRealTime

​GBP/USD looking strong on expectations of more rate hikes

​Tuesday’s employment and wage data prompted GBP/USD to surge to its highest level since April 2022.

​​Expectations of more Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes has driven the pair higher, and over the past week the price has rallied to a fresh higher high. This leaves the uptrend firmly intact and puts the price on course to target $1.30.

​​Sellers have been shut out since late June, and a reversal back below $1.26 would be needed to suggest some short-term weakness.

GBP/USD chart Source: ProRealTime
GBP/USD chart Source: ProRealTime

​USD/CAD falls to C$1.32

​A sharp reversal here with USD/CAD has reignited the downtrend, with further losses looking likely.

​​The rally to the 50-day SMA ended with a sharp drop on Friday, and additional losses since then have put the sellers firmly in charge. A move back to C$1.314, and could see further losses towards lows not seen since August last year.

​​A move above C$1.338 would be needed to reverse the bearish view.

USD/CAD chart Source: ProRealTime
USD/CAD chart Source: ProRealTime

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