EUR/USD slips while GBP/USD recovers and USD/JPY rises despite risk of BoJ intervention
Outlook on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY into month and quarter end.
EUR/USD slips but is to end month and quarter up
EUR/USD is seen slipping back towards last week’s low at $1.0845 as German inflation rises more than forecast but US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes in far better than expected.
German consumer price index (CPI) rose to 6.4% year-on-year (YoY) in June, from a 14-month low of 6.1%, while US GDP for quarter one (Q1) 2023 rose to 2% compared to an expected 1.4%. EUR/USD thus continues to come off its June six-week high at $1.1012 and could reach the $1.0789 April low on a fall through $1.0845.
Minor resistance above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.088 can be spotted at the 20 June low at $1.0893. Only a current unexpected bullish reversal and rise above Thursday’s $1.0941 high could put a bullish spin back on the currency pair.
GBP/USD bounces off support
On Thursday GBP/USD slid to $1.2591 on worries that the major UK utilities company Thames Water might have financial difficulties and could in future have to be nationalised.
Nonetheless GBP/USD is expected to end the month and quarter in positive territory with it bouncing off Thursday’s lows towards the mid-June low at $1.2768. Above it sits key resistance at last week’s $1.2841 to $1.2848 highs.
If this week’s $1.2591 low were to be slipped through, the $1.2544 early-June high could be revisited.
USD/JPY continues to trade in seven-month highs
Despite the risk of currency intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) looming high over USD/JPY, its gradual advance is ongoing with the late October 2022 at ¥145.11 having practically been reached.
Above it lies the September 2022 high at ¥145.90.
Minor support below Thursday’s ¥144.14 low can be spotted at last Friday’s ¥143.87 high.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Start trading forex today
Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.
- Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
- Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
- Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only
