ASX 200 afternoon report: 28 November 2023

The ASX 200 is trading 25 points (+0.36%) higher at 7013 as of 3:00 pm AEDT.

Market movements and ASX 200 performance

The ASX 200's attempt to recover from a soft session yesterday waned today as it relinquished over half of its 62 points of early gains.

The retreat from today's intraday high of 7049 gained momentum, notably after RBA Governor Michele Bullock, speaking on a panel in Hong Kong, once again adopted a hawkish tone. She highlighted that inflation had been "stronger than anticipated and certainly more than we had forecast."

Upcoming economic indicators and retail trends

In an interesting contrast to Australia's inflation scenario, tomorrow marks the release of the Australian monthly CPI indicator, preceding key inflation data releases in Europe and the US later this week. The market anticipates a decline in Australia's inflation to 5.2% in October, significantly surpassing the expected 2.7% in Europe and well above the 3.1% forecasted in the US.

Offering little solace to the notion that monetary policy is inadequately restrictive, October's retail sales saw a decrease of -0.2% MoM from the prior month's 0.9%. However, with the rising popularity of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, shoppers are speculated to be holding off on spending until these events. This theory is expected to be validated by a robust rebound in November's retail sales data.

Today's market movements

Financial sector

• NAB: +1.53% to $28.45
• ANZ: +1.18% to $24.41
• Westpac: +1.09% to $21.33
• CBA: +1.06% to $103.71

Consumer-facing stocks

• Adairs: +1.94% to $1.58
• Super Retail Group: +1.3% to $13.39
• JB Hi-Fi: +1.22% to $46.58
• Kogan: +0.84% to $4.81

Mining sector

• Mineral Resources: -1.63% to $61.34
• Rio Tinto: -0.77% to $124.30
• BHP: -0.69% to $46.20

Energy stocks

• Woodside Energy: -1.07% to $31.37
• Viva Energy: -0.65% to $3.08
• Beach Energy: -0.5% to $1.48
• Santos: -0.21% to $7.01

ASX 200 technical analysis

The ASX 200 has delineated an inverted head and shoulders bottom, identified at the October 6751 low, with the neckline positioned around 7140.

While I wouldn't categorise it as a textbook example of an inverted head and shoulders, and it is yet to surpass the neckline at 7140, it contributes to our belief that as long as the ASX 200 maintains its position above the October 30th low of 6751, it is likely to test the 200-day moving average at 7200. There is potential for further upward movement towards range highs at 7400.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{TradingView: the figures stated are as of 28 November 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}