Will Nvidia earnings provide relief after Wall Street's weekly decline?

Trump's tariff threats weigh on US markets

United States (US) stock markets fell on Friday, ending a turbulent week. President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union (EU) starting 1 June due to slow progress in trade negotiations, and a potential 25% levy on Apple if it does not relocate production to the US.

For the week, the US 500 (S&P 500) fell 2.61%, the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) dropped 2.39%, and Wall Street (Dow Jones) lost 1051 points (-2.47%).

President Trump has now extended the EU trade deal deadline to 9 July after a conversation with EU President Ursula von der Leyen. This prompted a 0.86% rise in US 500 futures this morning to 5867. The recent recovery in US equity markets has allowed Trump to adopt a stronger stance on tariffs and trade policy. Market analysts are calling this the 'Trump Call' after the 'Trump Put' was revealed during the April sell-off.

Fiscal concerns and elevated yields

Several factors emerged last week that could limit further market gains: 

• The unveiling of the 'Trump Call' last week
• Elevated bond yields
• Fiscal concerns
• Moody's downgrade
• Ongoing recession risks

These are likely to temper expectations that US equity markets will achieve new highs during this rally.

Nvidia earnings in focus as tech sector awaits results

Looking ahead, chip maker Nvidia is scheduled to report its earnings after the market closes on Thursday, 29 May, becoming the last of the 'Magnificent Seven' to report for this period.

Nvidia shares are currently down 2.23% this year at $131.29, after reaching a high of $153.13 and a low of $86.62 in 2025. The market is expecting earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 on $43.26 billion in revenue.

The options market is pricing in a possible +/- $11.00 move, which, based on Friday's close, could see the stock fall to $120 or rise to $142.00 following its earnings release.

Key economic data releases this week

Beyond Nvidia's earnings, tariff news and fiscal concerns, investors will closely watch commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

Key US economic indicators to be released include: 

• Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index previewed below
• Personal income and spending
• Durable goods orders
• The second estimate of first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Core PCE price index

Date: Friday, 30 May at 10.30pm AEST

For March, the headline PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year (YoY), marking the lowest increase in five months but exceeding market expectations of 2.2%. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, increased by 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), slowing from a 3% rise in February, for its smallest gain since March 2021.

Additional report details showed that personal income and personal spending grew by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, beating expectations.

For April, the preliminary expectations is for the headline PCE price index to ease to 2.1% while the core measure is expected to remain at 2.6% YoY. The US interest rates market begins the week with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in September. A total of 55 bp of Fed rate cuts expected between now and year-end.

Core PCE price index chart

US tech 100 technical analysis

Following the US Tech 100's surge higher on 12 May, we have been working with the view that the rally from the 21 April 17,592 low is a Wave III (Elliott Wave). This should soon be followed by a Wave IV pullback, before regrouping for another leg higher to complete a five-wave advance from the April 16,542 low.

Last week's rejection from a three-month high of 21,482 suggests the US Tech 100 is likely in a Wave IV pullback, which could see the index retrace back into the 20,500 - 20,300 support area. We expect this support area to contain weakness before retesting the 21,482 high (Wave V).

However, we continue to highlight that a sustained break below the support provided by the 200-day moving average (MA) at 20,305, followed by a sustained break below the medium-term support 19,250 - 19,150 area, would negate the positive bias and warn of a retest of the April lows.

US tech 100 daily chart

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 also surged higher on 12 May. We have been working with the view that the rally from the 21 April 5101 low is a Wave III (Elliott Wave) that should soon be followed by a Wave IV pullback, before regrouping for another leg higher to complete a five-wave advance from the April 4835 low.

Last week's rejection from a three-month high of 5968 suggests that the US 500 is likely in a Wave IV pullback, which takes the index back into the 5770 - 5720 support area. We expect this support area to contain weakness before retesting last week's 5968 high (Wave V).

However, we continue to highlight that a sustained break below the support at 5770 - 5720, followed by a sustained break below the medium-term support 5500 - 5480, would negate the positive bias and warn of a retest of the April lows.

US 500 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 26 May 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}