The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
25-29 March
Local
In February 2024, South Africa witnessed a notable uptick in annual consumer price inflation to 5.6%, escalating from 5.3% in January, alongside a 1.0% surge in the consumer price index within the same month. Concurrently, the retail sector experienced a downturn, with real-term retail trade sales dropping by 2.1% year-on-year in January 2024, primarily due to significant declines in sales of textiles, clothing, footwear, and leather goods, along with pharmaceuticals, medical goods, cosmetics, and toiletries. Despite this, a marginal improvement of 0.4% was observed in retail trade sales over the three months ending in January 2024 compared with the same period in the previous year, led by retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear, and leather goods, as well as general dealers. However, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales showed a decrease of 0.3% in the three months ending in January 2024 against the preceding three months, highlighting ongoing challenges and volatility within the retail market.
The new week will see the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) concluding its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and announcing with it any changes to local lending rates. Expectations are for no change in the prime and repo rates, although traders will be looking for clues in the policy statement as to when lending in South Africa could start to ease.
International
A busy week of central bank activity saw a surprise rate cut in Switzerland, as well as easing in Mexico and Brazil and a surprisingly dovish Bank of England expectant of a rate cut in June this year. The US Federal Reserve kept lending rates unchanged, but alluded to three cuts to follow in 2024, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended negative rates, raising their benchmark for the first time since 2007. There was also the suggestion of more monetary easing to come from China.
The new week is likely to see US PCE inflation as the key data point for traders to keep an eye on.
The Rand
A late week resurgence in the US dollar has seen the rand renewing some near-term pressure and trading well off its best levels of the month. The domestic currency lost some ground to major currency peers as well, although these moves have been far less pronounced. While the dollar initially saw some depreciation after the FOMC press conference, stronger US economic data and some suggestions that rates in the US might only start to come down in the second half of the year have seen losses recouped, and strength renewed for the greenback.
Local inflation data, reported by Statistics South Africa, has suggested that domestic rates could stay higher for longer and serves as a precursor to the new week’s SARB MPC meeting.
Commodities
A mixed performance from the commodities sector saw gold peaking at all-time highs whilst other industrial metals dipped lower this week. This comes as the dollar continued to firm after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it expected three rate cuts in 2024 at the conclusion of its FOMC meeting earlier this week.
Iron ore futures rose to their highest levels in over a week on Thursday after expectations of further monetary easing in China, along with improved profitability among certain steelmakers.
Brent crude oil prices fell amid weaker US demand. European Crude oil markets have weakened in response to refinery maintenance and extra supply from the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Companies
OUTsurance Group Limited: 1H24 results, showed diluted EPS increased by 29.9% from the prior year.
Sun International Ltd: FY23 results showed diluted EPS to have increased to 491.00c, from 222.00c in the previous year.
JSE Ltd: FY23 results showed diluted EPS to increased 11.2% from the previous year.
Merafe Resources Ltd: FY23 results showed diluted EPS to have increased to 70.10c, from 56.40c in the previous year.
Discovery Ltd: 1H24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased by 2.0% from the prior year’s comparative period.
Investec PLC (SA): in its trading update for the year ending 31 March 2024, expects HEPS to be between 4.8% to 10.6% higher than in the prior year.
Grand Parade Investments Ltd: 1H24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased by 18.9% from the prior year’s comparative period.
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (SA): 1H24 results showed a diluted loss per share of 47.00 US cents
Remgro Ltd: 1H24 results showed a diluted loss per share of 432.00c, which compares with EPS of 701.00c in the prior year’s comparative period.
Company announcements
Date |
Company |
Event Type |
25 March 2024 |
Advtech Ltd |
Earnings Release |
25 March 2024 |
Fairvest Ltd |
Operating Results |
25 March 2024 |
Heriot REIT Ltd |
Earnings Release |
25 March 2024 |
Old Mutual Ltd |
Earnings Release |
25 March 2024 |
Conduit Capital Ltd |
Earnings Release |
25 March 2024 |
Ascendis Health Ltd |
Earnings Release |
25 March 2024 |
Clientele Ltd |
Earnings Release |
26 March 2024 |
Master Drilling Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
26 March 2024 |
Shoprite Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
26 March 2024 |
Bidvest Group Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
26 March 2024 |
Putprop Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
26 March 2024 |
FirstRand Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
26 March 2024 |
Motus Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
26 March 2024 |
Anglo American Platinum Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
27 March 2024 |
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd |
Earnings Release |
27 March 2024 |
Sasfin Holdings Ltd |
Earnings Release |
27 March 2024 |
Rex Trueform Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
27 March 2024 |
Metair Investments Ltd |
Earnings Release |
27 March 2024 |
African & Overseas Enterprises Ltd |
Earnings Release |
28 March 2024 |
Randgold & Exploration Company Ltd |
Earnings Release |
28 March 2024 |
York Timber Holdings Ltd |
Earnings Release |
28 March 2024 |
C2e Energy Inc |
Earnings Release |
28 March 2024 |
Workforce Holdings Ltd |
Earnings Release |
29 March 2024 |
Wesizwe Platinum Ltd |
Earnings Release |
29 March 2024 |
Telemasters Holdings Ltd |
Earnings Release |
29 March 2024 |
Bell Equipment Ltd |
Earnings Release |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
26 March 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
106.7 |
27 March 2024 |
3:00pm |
ZAR |
SARB Interest Rate Decision |
8.25% |
28 March 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
3.2% |
28 March 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
210K |
28 March 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
- 4.9% |
28 March 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
76.5 |
29 March 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.4% |
29 March 2024 |
5:30pm |
USD |
Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
|
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Enjoy flexible access to 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution
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Our platform and apps are intuitive and highly responsive, so trading opportunities are always within reach
Grow your confidence with an established provider
We’re a FTSE 250 company that’s been leading our industry for nearly 50 years, so our expertise is second to none