The Week Ahead

24 April - 01 May 2015

A regular look at local and international economic data, major events, economic releases and company news expected in the week to come.

By Shaun Murison,  Market Analyst

 

Shares overview

Source: IG Insight, as of 24/04/2015

Top gainers

Resource counters, with exposure to iron ore in particular, have managed to extend the gains witnessed last week. A rebound in the steel making commodity, has in part been catalysed by news from BHP Billiton that the rate of which the company has been ramping up iron ore production looks set to slow.

BHP Billiton has said that it has started to tap the brake on expansion plans and is reducing supplies from its more expensive mines. The company also released an operational update (9months) in which the group production was noted to have increased by 9%.  Petroleum production increased by 6%, copper production by 2%, iron ore (Western Australia) production by 16% and metallurgical coal production by 14%.

Anglo American Plc's Q1 production report showed the following production changes:

Iron Ore +7% Export Met Coal -17% Export Thermal Coal +11%, Copper -15%, Nickel -27% Platinum +50% and Diamonds +2%.

Kumba Iron Ore Q1 2015 total production in iron ore increased by +7% vs Q1 2014 while declining 2% vs Q4 2014.

Top Decliners

The extent of losses would appear marginal relative to the extent of gains witnessed over the last week.

AngloGold, the last remaining gold counter in the Top40 index, heads up the decliners list following a pressured price of the underlying metal which trades well below the $1200/oz mark.

Growthpoint share price adjusted as it went ex-dividend on Monday to the amount of R0.45.

INET BFA's weekly Broker Bonsensus on the top traded shares.

Click to view this week's broker consensus

 

 

DATE               COMPANY EVENT AMOUNT
29 Apr 

Redefine International

PLC

Q2 2015 Earnings

Release

n/a
29-Apr British American Tobacco PLC Q1 2015 Interim Management Statement Release n/a
29-Apr

Redefine International

PLC

Q2 2015 Trading Statement

Release

n/a
31-Apr Times Media Group     Cum-Dividend  R0.30
31-Apr PSG Group                                       Cum-Dividend  R1.45

Source:  Economic Calendar, as of 24/04/2015

 

Market overview

Local Data

It has been a relatively quiet week on the economic front with just Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to report locally.

The headline CPI (for all urban areas) annual inflation rate in March 2015 was 4,0%. This rate was 0,1 of a percentage point higher than the corresponding annual rate of 3,9% in February 2015. On average, prices increased by 1,4% between February 2015 and March 2015.

International Data

Both services and manufacturing PMI data from Germany and France fell short of consensus as well as the previous month’s index readings. Also in Europe, discussions between Greek policy makers and the Troika (Eurozone leaders, IMF and ECB) continued to fail in terms of finding common ground in aid of releasing bailout funds for Greece, whose next debt repayment to the IMF draws ever nearer (11 May).

In the US, the economic calendar was light. Weekly unemployment claims showed more people filed for unemployment than was expected over the period. Crude oil inventories were reported significantly higher than expected, although the news had little effect on the price of the underlying commodity which continued to rebound on news of continued military action in Yemen. 

The week ahead

The shortened trading week will certainly hold the potential for volatility mid-week as we await Preliminary GDP data out of the U.K on Tuesday and Advance GDP data out of the U.S. on Wednesday. The Federal reserve will also convene to announce any changes to the federal funds rate as well as issue a public statement. 

Date Time Region Event Previous
28-Apr 10:30 GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.6%
28-Apr 16:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 101.3
29-Apr All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.5%
29-Apr 14:30 USD Advance GDP q/q 2.2%
29-Apr 20:00 USD FOMC Statement n/a
29-Apr 20:00 USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25%
30-Apr 11:30 ZAR PPI m/m 0.4%
30-Apr 11:30 ZAR PPI y/y 2.6%
30-Apr 11:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y -0.1%
30-Apr 14:30 USD Unemployment Claims 294K
1-May 03:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.1
1-May 10:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 54.4
1-May 16:00 USD ISM Manufaturing PMI 51.5

Source:  Economic Calendar, as of 24/04/2015

 

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Broker consensus

Source: INET BFA, as of 24/04/2015

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