The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
16-20 September
Local
Key Takeaways from Mining and Manufacturing production and sales data reeleased by Statistics South Africa:
- Mining Production Decline: In July 2024, overall mining production fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with notable decreases in iron ore (-19.0%), ‘other’ metallic minerals (-36.2%), and gold (-3.5%).
- Positive Growth in Manganese and Chromium Ores: Despite the overall decline in mining, manganese ore and chromium ore experienced positive growth, increasing by 27.0% and 23.3%, respectively.
- Strong Mineral Sales Growth: Mineral sales surged by 24.5% year-on-year in July 2024, driven largely by significant increases in gold (117.5%), manganese ore (70.8%), and Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) (16.3%).
- Manufacturing Production Increase: Manufacturing production rose by 1.7% compared to July 2023, with the food and beverages, and basic iron and steel sectors making the largest positive contributions.
- Mixed Performance in Manufacturing Sales: While seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales increased by 1.6% from June 2024, the overall sector showed mixed performance, with positive contributions from some divisions being offset by declines in others, notably the motor vehicle sector.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is now expected to lower its repo rate by 25 basis points (0,25%) to 8.00% at its September 19 meeting, driven by slowing inflation. This adjustment would mark the first rate cut in over four years ago. In a recent Reuters survey, 18 out of 21 economists forecasted this rate cut, while the remaining three expected it to stay at 8.25%. Median projections suggest that the SARB will continue to ease rates over the next three quarters, reaching 7.25% by May.
International
The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced interest rates for the second time this year, lowering the key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, as expected. This decision comes amid declining inflation, now nearing 2%, and growing economic concerns. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach, indicating no fixed path for future rate adjustments. The ECB also revised its economic growth forecasts downwards for the coming years while maintaining its inflation outlook. Concurrently, the ECB cut two other interest rates by 60 basis points each. As inflation showed signs of easing, with compensation per employee slowing, the ECB aims to moderate monetary-policy restrictions to support consumption and investments. Nonetheless, growth challenges persist, and analysts anticipate further rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting reductions at every ECB meeting next year.
In August, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, and increased by 2.5% year-over-year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, slightly higher than the expected 0.2%. Real average hourly earnings grew by 0.2% for the month and 1.3% year-over-year. Despite continued inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target for 42 months, the overall trend appears to be downward. The M2 money supply has risen since October but is still down 3.1% from its April 2022 peak. Given the current inflation data, rate cuts are anticipated at the next Fed meeting this week, with further quarter-point cuts expected at the remaining meetings this year and continuing into 2025, though caution is needed to prevent inflation from re-accelerating.
There is a lot of central bank activity in the coming week with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Bank of England also scheduled to meet. Polls currently suggest no changes in rates from the BOE and BOJ, although the Fed is expected to move rates 25 basis points lower.
The Rand
The rand weakened early in the week due to political concerns over opposition from ActionSA and the Democratic Alliance (DA) to President Cyril Ramaphosa's new education bill. However, the primary drivers of the rand's movement were a weakening Euro and US dollar, influenced by the European Central Bank's rate cut and anticipation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Markets are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve rates decision and monetary policy statement, as well as the outcomes from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Commodities
A softer dollar has bolstered commodity prices, with gold reaching new highs and base metals rebounding from this month's lows. Industrial metals are gaining additional support from indications that Chinese policymakers may soon introduce further market stimulus. Meanwhile, oil prices have rebounded from oversold conditions due to potential supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine threatening US production.
Companies
FirstRand Ltd: FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased 5.1% from the prior year.
Discovery Ltd: in its trading update for the year ended 30 June 2024, expects EPS to be 8.0% to 13.0%, higher as compared to 972.60c recorded in the previous year.
SA Corporate Real Estate Limited: 1H24 results, showed diluted EPS to have declined marginally to 16.23c from 16.72c in the previous year.
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: 1H24 results showed a diluted loss per share of 264.00c, which compares with EPS of 262.00c in the previous year.
Growthpoint Properties Ltd: FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased 46.0% from the previous year.
Hyprop Investments Ltd: in its trading update for the year ended 30 June 2024, expects distributable income per share (DIPS) to decline 8.7% to 370.00c.
Pan African Resources PLC (SA): FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased 30.2% from the prior year.
Super Group Ltd (SA): FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have declined to 12.90c from 475.50c in the previous year.
Old Mutual Limited: in its trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2024, expects HEPS to be 33.0% to 43.0% than in the prior year’s comparative period.
Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Ltd: FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased to 1,842.40c from 1,489.70c in the previous year.
Attacq Ltd: FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased 82.3% from the previous year.
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd: in its trading update for the six months ended 31 August 2024, expects HEPS to be 35.0% to 37.0%, higher as compared to 4,072.00c recorded in the previous year.
AVI Ltd: FY24 results showed diluted EPS to have increased 22.0% from the previous year.
Sun International Ltd: FY24 results, showed basic and diluted EPS to have increased to 335.00c, from 168.00c recorded in the previous year.
Company announcements
Date |
Company Name |
Event Type |
16 September 2024 |
Hyprop Investments Ltd |
Earnings Release |
17 September 2024 |
OUTsurance Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
17 September 2024 |
Clientele Ltd |
Earnings Release |
18 September 2024 |
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
18 September 2024 |
Northam Platinum Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
18 September 2024 |
Santam Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
18 September 2024 |
Transpaco Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
18 September 2024 |
PPC Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
18 September 2024 |
Grindrod Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
18 September 2024 |
Adcock Ingram Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
19 September 2024 |
Thungela Resources Limited |
Ex Dividend |
19 September 2024 |
Remgro Ltd |
Earnings Release |
19 September 2024 |
Mustek Ltd |
Earnings Release |
20 September 2024 |
Discovery Ltd |
Earnings Release |
20 September 2024 |
Investec Ltd |
Trading Statement |
20 September 2024 |
Fairvest Ltd |
Operations Update |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
17 September 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
0.4% |
17 September 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.0% |
18 September 2024 |
8:00am |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
2.2% |
18 September 2024 |
10:00am |
ZAR |
CPI m/m |
0.4% |
18 September 2024 |
10:00am |
ZAR |
CPI y/y |
4.6% |
18 September 2024 |
1:00pm |
ZAR |
Retail Sales y/y |
4.1% |
18 September 2024 |
8:00pm |
USD |
Federal Funds Rate |
5.50% |
18 September 2024 |
8:00pm |
USD |
FOMC Economic Projections |
|
18 September 2024 |
8:00pm |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
18 September 2024 |
8:30pm |
USD |
FOMC Press Conference |
|
19 September 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
Monetary Policy Summary |
|
19 September 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes |
0-5-4 |
19 September 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
5.0% |
19 September 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
230K |
19 September 2024 |
3:00pm |
ZAR |
SARB Rates Decision |
11.75% |
20 September 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Policy Rate |
<0.25% |
20 September 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Statement |
|
20 September 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Press Conference |
|
20 September 2024 |
8:00am |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.5% |
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Our platform and apps are intuitive and highly responsive, so trading opportunities are always within reach
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We’re a FTSE 250 company that’s been leading our industry for nearly 50 years, so our expertise is second to none