The Week Ahead

17 - 21 August 2015

A look at local and international economic data, major events, economic releases and company news expected in the week to come.

By Shaun Murison,  Market Analyst


Shares overview

It has been a turbulent week in financial markets with volatility stemming predominantly from Chinese economic data and currency fixing.

Top decliners

Richemont would have suffered at the hands of the bearish sentiment induced, following the Chinese yuan deprecation. Luxury goods (such as those offered by Richemont) become more expensive to the Chinese consumer as the regions domestic currency devalues.

Still in their first quarter of inclusion into the Top 40 index, Capitec and Brait SE occupy the top decliners spots. While no new news has supported the weakness for both stocks this week, the latter (Brait SE) extends the declines realised last week following a disappointing response to a quarterly update released. Shoprite Holdings is set to report FY 2015 results on Wednesday the 19th of August.

Top gainers

China’s currency devaluation has enhanced fears around the state of economic growth and in turn spurred a surge in safe haven demand, pushing dollar denominated gold to this month’s high. Emerging market currencies have been largely weaker as a result of the yuan induced sentiment, which combined with the move in dollar gold, has provided more favourable conditions (short-term) for local miners of the precious yellow metal. AngloGold Ashanti, the last remaining gold miner in the Top 40 index has as a result significantly outperformed fellow blue chip counters in the week gone by. 

Source: IG Insight, as of 14/08/2015

Date Company Event Amount
17-Aug AngloGold Ashanti Ltd Q2 2015 results n/a
17-Aug British American Tobacco Plc Ex-Dividend £0.54889
17-Aug Group Five Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
17-Aug Hulamin Ltd Ex-Dividend R0.08
17-Aug Mondi Ltd Ex-Dividend R2.00
18-Aug Aveng Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
18-Aug Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd Q4 2015 results n/a
20-Aug Gold Fields Ltd Q2 2015 results n/a
20-Aug Northam Platinum Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
20-Aug Truworths International Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
20-Aug Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc Q4 2015 results n/a
21-Aug Exxaro Resources Ltd Interim 2015 results n/a
21-Aug Grindrod Ltd Interim 2015 results n/a

Source: Economic Calendar, as of 14/08/2015

INET BFA's weekly Broker Bonsensus on the top traded shares.

Click to view this week's broker consensus

Market overview

Local Data

Manufacturing production and sales data for June 2015 highlighted a further 0.4% contraction in the manufacturing sector y/y. The figure was however ahead of the 0.65% contraction expected and slower than the contraction of 1.4% realised in the previous month.

International Data

News from China has unsettled markets over the last week to catalyse a renewed round of volatility in the global market place. Weak export data from the region was promptly followed by a decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to weaken the yuan against the dollar by 1.9% through the currency peg put in place by the PBOC. This currency was deliberately devalued further on Wednesday by 1.6% following worse than expected industrial production data and once again on Thursday by 1.1%.

In Europe, Preliminary GDP data out of Germany showed economic growth of 0.4% q/q, which was slightly below the expected figure which was for 0.5% q/q growth. Flash GDP data out of the Eurozone showed economic growth to be at 0.3% q/q (est. 0.4% q/q).

In the U.S, core retail and retail sales data fell in line with estimates increasing by 0.4% and 0.6% m/m respectively. Unemployment claims data was slightly worse than the consensus of estimates, with 274000 people filing for benefits in the previous week (est. 272000).

The week ahead

The new week will have an elevated propensity for volatility on Wednesday when the details of the last U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are divulged to the public. On the same day, markets will look to the CPI and core CPI prints for further clues relating to when the U.S. will look to tighten monetary policy. Also of interest on Wednesday will be the release of domestic CPI and retail sales data.

Date Time Region Event Estimation
18-Aug 10:30 GBP CPI y/y 0.00%
18-Aug 14:30 USD Building permits 1.34M
19-Aug 14:30 USD CPI m/m 0.30%
19-Aug 10:00 SA CPI m/m 0.40%
19-Aug 10:00 SA CPI y/y 4.70%
19-Aug 13:00 SA Retail sales y/y 2.40%
19-Aug 14:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.20%
19-Aug 20:00 USD FOMC meeting minutes n/a
20-Aug 10:30 GBP Retail sales m/m -0.20%
20-Aug 14:30 USD Unemployment claims n/a
20-Aug 16:00 USD Philly Fed manufacturing index 5.7
21-Aug 03:45 CNY Caixin flash manufacturing PMI 47.8
21-Aug 09:00 EUR French flash manufacturing PMI 49.6
21-Aug 09:30 EUR German flash manufacturing PMI 51.8

Source: Economic Calendar, as of 14/08/2015


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Last week's report

A reminder of the key company news announced last week.

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Broker consensus

Source: INET BFA, as of 14/08/2015

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