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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

Shaun Murison

Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.

The Week Ahead

22-26 April

Local

In March 2024, the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban areas indicated that annual consumer price inflation decreased slightly to 5.3% from 5.6% in February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8%. The main drivers of this annual inflation rate included housing and utilities, miscellaneous goods and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport, contributing significantly with increments ranging from 5.1% to 8.5% year-on-year. Notably, the inflation rate for goods decreased to 5.7% from February's 6.2%, while the rate for services experienced a slight increase to 5.0% from 4.9%.

The slight tick lower in inflation will be welcomed by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) but CPI remains elevated and closer towards the ceiling of the 3% to 6% targeted range. Current expectations suggest that rates could start to lower in the second half of the year through 25 basis point increments. The SARB is likely to follow the lead though of developed economies such as the US to try stem capital outflows and protect carry trade opportunity. However, the outlook for US rate cuts this year has been diminishing.

International

Major international benchmark equity indices have been correcting from near term highs this last week. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a more hawkish sounding US Federal Reserve have been amongst the negative catalysts for equity markets.

The US Federal Reserve appears to have started distancing itself from a ‘dovish pivot’, suggesting that rates could stay higher for longer in the world’s largest economy. Federal Fund Futures rates are implying that the first rate cut this year is unlikely to come before September, to which the probability therein currently sits at around 45%.

In China, GDP growth for the first quarter has come in at 5.3% q/y, well ahead of a consensus of estimates which had suggested a figure of 4.8% q/y.

Troubles in the Middle East have continued to escalate after Israel reportedly launched an airstrike against Iran in retaliation for its recent drone attack.

bar graph displaying global indices Source: IG Charts
bar graph displaying global indices Source: IG Charts

The Rand

The rand was on solid footing early in the week, finding some brief stability from better than expected local inflation data. However weakness against the US dollar has been pronounced, as the greenback finds strength on the back of safe haven demand (amidst geopolitical tensions) and a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve.

Bar graph displaying south african rand forex pairs Source: IG charts
Bar graph displaying south african rand forex pairs Source: IG charts

Commodities

Middle Eastern turmoil pushed gold prices higher for the fifth consecutive week. Safe-haven demand boosted the price of the yellow metal amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Other precious metals traded mixed this week with silver looking for its highest weekly close in over three years.

It was another positive week for industrial metals with iron ore and copper continuing to gain on the back of improving demand in China.

Brent crude oil eased despite news that the US had announced sanctions on Iran. A decrease in global demand outweighed the supply fears causing oil prices to decline for a second straight week.

Source: IG charts
Source: IG charts

Companies

PSG Konsult Limited: FY23 results showed diluted EPS to have increased by 13.2% from the previous year.

Oceana Group Ltd: in its trading update for the six months ended 31 March 2024, guided HEPS to be between 89.0% to 99.0%, higher as compared with 299.10c recorded in the previous year.

Anglo American PLC (SA): The mining company announced that the value of rough diamond sales (Global Sightholder Sales and Auctions) for De Beers' third sales cycle of 2024, amounted to $445.00m.

Afrimat Limited: in its trading update for the year ended 29 February 2024, guided HEPS to be between 21.0% to 26.0%, higher than in the previous year.

Graph comparing the johannesburg stock exchange indices Source: IG charts
Graph comparing the johannesburg stock exchange indices Source: IG charts

Company announcements

Date

Company

Event Type

22 April 2024

Salungano Group Ltd

Earnings Release

23 April 2024

Anglo American Platinum Ltd

Earnings Release

23 April 2024

Oasis Crescent Property Fund

Earnings Release

24 April 2024

Satrix RAFI 40 Index Portfolio

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Satrix Shari'ah Top 40 Index ETF

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Satrix SWIX

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Satrix Dividend Plus ETF

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Barloworld Ltd

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Ibex Investment Holdings Ltd

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd

Ex Dividend

24 April 2024

Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Ltd

Ex Dividend

25 April 2024

Clicks Group Ltd

Earnings Release

Economic calendar

Date

Time

Region

Event

Previous

23 April 2024

9:15am

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

46.2

23 April 2024

9:15am

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

48.3

23 April 2024

9:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

41.9

23 April 2024

9:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

50.1

23 April 2024

10:30am

GBP

Flash Manufacturing PMI

50.3

23 April 2024

10:30am

GBP

Flash Services PMI

53.1

23 April 2024

3:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

51.9

23 April 2024

3:45pm

USD

Flash Services PMI

51.7

25 April 2024

2:30pm

USD

Advance GDP q/q

3.4%

25 April 2024

2:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

212K

25 April 2024

11:30am

ZAR

PPI MoM

0.5%

25 April 2024

11:30am

ZAR

PPI YoY

4.5%

25 April 2024

4:00pm

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

1.6%

26 April 2024

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

<0.10%

26 April 2024

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

26 April 2024

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Outlook Report

26 April 2024

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

26 April 2024

2:30pm

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.3%

26 April 2024

4:00pm

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

77.9

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Enjoy flexible access to 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution

React faster with powerful technology

Our platform and apps are intuitive and highly responsive, so trading opportunities are always within reach

Grow your confidence with an established provider

We’re a FTSE 250 company that’s been leading our industry for nearly 50 years, so our expertise is second to none

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