The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
22-26 April
Local
In March 2024, the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban areas indicated that annual consumer price inflation decreased slightly to 5.3% from 5.6% in February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8%. The main drivers of this annual inflation rate included housing and utilities, miscellaneous goods and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport, contributing significantly with increments ranging from 5.1% to 8.5% year-on-year. Notably, the inflation rate for goods decreased to 5.7% from February's 6.2%, while the rate for services experienced a slight increase to 5.0% from 4.9%.
The slight tick lower in inflation will be welcomed by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) but CPI remains elevated and closer towards the ceiling of the 3% to 6% targeted range. Current expectations suggest that rates could start to lower in the second half of the year through 25 basis point increments. The SARB is likely to follow the lead though of developed economies such as the US to try stem capital outflows and protect carry trade opportunity. However, the outlook for US rate cuts this year has been diminishing.
International
Major international benchmark equity indices have been correcting from near term highs this last week. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a more hawkish sounding US Federal Reserve have been amongst the negative catalysts for equity markets.
The US Federal Reserve appears to have started distancing itself from a ‘dovish pivot’, suggesting that rates could stay higher for longer in the world’s largest economy. Federal Fund Futures rates are implying that the first rate cut this year is unlikely to come before September, to which the probability therein currently sits at around 45%.
In China, GDP growth for the first quarter has come in at 5.3% q/y, well ahead of a consensus of estimates which had suggested a figure of 4.8% q/y.
Troubles in the Middle East have continued to escalate after Israel reportedly launched an airstrike against Iran in retaliation for its recent drone attack.
The Rand
The rand was on solid footing early in the week, finding some brief stability from better than expected local inflation data. However weakness against the US dollar has been pronounced, as the greenback finds strength on the back of safe haven demand (amidst geopolitical tensions) and a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve.
Commodities
Middle Eastern turmoil pushed gold prices higher for the fifth consecutive week. Safe-haven demand boosted the price of the yellow metal amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Other precious metals traded mixed this week with silver looking for its highest weekly close in over three years.
It was another positive week for industrial metals with iron ore and copper continuing to gain on the back of improving demand in China.
Brent crude oil eased despite news that the US had announced sanctions on Iran. A decrease in global demand outweighed the supply fears causing oil prices to decline for a second straight week.
Companies
PSG Konsult Limited: FY23 results showed diluted EPS to have increased by 13.2% from the previous year.
Oceana Group Ltd: in its trading update for the six months ended 31 March 2024, guided HEPS to be between 89.0% to 99.0%, higher as compared with 299.10c recorded in the previous year.
Anglo American PLC (SA): The mining company announced that the value of rough diamond sales (Global Sightholder Sales and Auctions) for De Beers' third sales cycle of 2024, amounted to $445.00m.
Afrimat Limited: in its trading update for the year ended 29 February 2024, guided HEPS to be between 21.0% to 26.0%, higher than in the previous year.
Company announcements
Date |
Company |
Event Type |
22 April 2024 |
Salungano Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
23 April 2024 |
Anglo American Platinum Ltd |
Earnings Release |
23 April 2024 |
Oasis Crescent Property Fund |
Earnings Release |
24 April 2024 |
Satrix RAFI 40 Index Portfolio |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Satrix Shari'ah Top 40 Index ETF |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Satrix SWIX |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Satrix Dividend Plus ETF |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Barloworld Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Ibex Investment Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
24 April 2024 |
Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
25 April 2024 |
Clicks Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
23 April 2024 |
9:15am |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
23 April 2024 |
9:15am |
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
48.3 |
23 April 2024 |
9:30am |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
41.9 |
23 April 2024 |
9:30am |
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
50.1 |
23 April 2024 |
10:30am |
GBP |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
50.3 |
23 April 2024 |
10:30am |
GBP |
Flash Services PMI |
53.1 |
23 April 2024 |
3:45pm |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.9 |
23 April 2024 |
3:45pm |
USD |
Flash Services PMI |
51.7 |
25 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
3.4% |
25 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
212K |
25 April 2024 |
11:30am |
ZAR |
PPI MoM |
0.5% |
25 April 2024 |
11:30am |
ZAR |
PPI YoY |
4.5% |
25 April 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
1.6% |
26 April 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Policy Rate |
<0.10% |
26 April 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Statement |
|
26 April 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Outlook Report |
|
26 April 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Press Conference |
|
26 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.3% |
26 April 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
77.9 |
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Fast execution on a huge range of markets
Enjoy flexible access to 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution
React faster with powerful technology
Our platform and apps are intuitive and highly responsive, so trading opportunities are always within reach
Grow your confidence with an established provider
We’re a FTSE 250 company that’s been leading our industry for nearly 50 years, so our expertise is second to none