The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
15-19 April
Local
Local mining and manufacturing data released by Statistics South Africa (STATSSA) has painted a mixed picture of our economy on a seasonal relative annualized basis.
Mining production and sales, February 2024
Year-on-year data for February 2024 showed a significant uptick in mining production, with a notable 9.9% increase. This growth is largely attributed to considerable output in iron ore, coal, and chromium ore. Specifically, iron ore production skyrocketed by 42.9%, contributing a substantial 5.1 percentage points to the overall increase.
However, the mining sector isn't without its challenges, as evidenced by the seasonally adjusted figures. While February 2024 saw a 5.0% increase compared to January, there's a slight 1.4% dip in production over the three-month period ending in February.
With regards to mineral sales, the landscape appears mixed. February 2024 saw a 2.8% year-on-year decrease in mineral sales at current prices, with PGMs, manganese ore, and coal facing the steepest declines.
Conversely, positive movements in iron ore, gold, and chromium ore sales paint a brighter picture for these markets. Iron ore, for instance, saw a 22.6% increase in sales, potentially signaling strong demand and offering a promising outlook.
Manufacturing production and sales, February 2024
In February 2024, manufacturing production saw a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, highlighting some economic resilience and growth within certain sectors. Notably, industries such as wood products, food and beverages, and chemical products were at the forefront of this expansion.
However, a closer look reveals a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.3% in seasonally adjusted manufacturing production from January to February 2024.
Manufacturing sales, saw a 1.0% increase in February 2024 compared with January of the same year, showing marginal demand for manufactured goods.
International
US CPI and Core CPI data for March came in higher than expected, resulting in dollar and Yield strength, while major equity benchmarks came under pressure. The inflation data suggests a delay in the timing of rate cuts out of the world’s largest economy. Fed fund futures are now implying that we might only see the US start to ease rates in September, with perhaps only two cuts to come in 2024.
The European Central Bank (ECB) left lending rates unchanged at its policy meeting although lowered its inflation outlook. Markets are now expecting the central bank to lower European lending rates in June this year.
The Rand
While the rand has started to firm in April, short term gains began to unwind this last week after the US inflation data was released. The data suggests later and fewer US rate cuts this year, and in turn resulted in a short-term resurgence for the US dollar.
The rand was given marginal respite following mostly positive manufacturing and mining production data.
Commodities
Commodity prices have had a positive week overall despite hotter-than-expected US inflation data. Gold has continued to trade to new high territory as central bank purchases amid geopolitical tensions sustain its momentum. Silver reached its highest level since early 2021 whilst other precious metals have also rallied further into positive territory.
Brent crude oil continues to track higher as escalating tensions in the Middle East spark fears over potential Iranian involvement.
Iron ore has rebounded closing at a four-week high thanks to a brighter demand outlook in top consumer China.
Companies
PPC Ltd: has implied that it will look to reward shareholders this financial year either by reinstating dividend payments or through implementing a share repurchase programme.
Afrimat Limited: announced that the remaining condition precedent of the Share Purchase Agreement with Caricement B.V., in terms of which the company acquired 100% of the issued share capital of Lafarge South Africa Holdings Proprietary, has been fulfilled and has become unconditional on 10 April 2024, and the Acquisition will be closed by no later than 24 April 2024.
Company announcements
Date |
Company |
Event Type |
15 April 2024 |
Labat Africa Ltd |
Earnings Release |
15 April 2024 |
Salungano Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
16 April 2024 |
Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd |
Earnings Release |
16 April 2024 |
PSG Konsult Ltd |
Earnings Release |
17 April 2024 |
Zeder Investments Ltd |
Earnings Release |
17 April 2024 |
CoreShares Wealth GOVI ETF |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Get Heriot REIT Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
SA Corporate Real Estate Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Telemasters Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
CA Sales Holdings Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Old Mutual Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
MTN Group Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
ADvTECH Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
South Ocean Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Discovery Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Remgro Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Sabvest Capital Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Stadio Holdings Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Thungela Resources Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
Absa Bank Limited |
Ex Dividend |
17 April 2024 |
AVI Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
19 April 2024 |
Royal Bafokeng Platinum Ltd |
Earnings Release |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
15 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
15 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
-20.9 |
15 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
16 April 2024 |
4:00am |
CNY |
Industrial Production y/y |
7.0% |
16 April 2024 |
8:00am |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
16.8K |
16 April 2024 |
7:00pm |
GBP |
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
|
17 April 2024 |
10:00am |
ZAR |
Inflation Rate MoM |
1% |
17 April 2024 |
10.00am |
ZAR |
Inflation Rate YoY |
5.6% |
17 April 2024 |
8:00am |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
3.4% |
17 April 2024 |
6:00pm |
GBP |
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
|
18 April 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
211K |
19 April 2024 |
8:00am |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.0% |
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Enjoy flexible access to 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution
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Our platform and apps are intuitive and highly responsive, so trading opportunities are always within reach
Grow your confidence with an established provider
We’re a FTSE 250 company that’s been leading our industry for nearly 50 years, so our expertise is second to none