What to expect from September’s US non-farm payrolls

US non-farm payrolls are expected to grow by 184,000 in September down from 201,000 in August. It comes as the US dollar bulls gather momentum and the US 10-year treasury yield rises above 3.2%.

Victoria Scholar talks with chief market analyst, Chris Beauchamp, about the outlook for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report. Wednesday’s private sector ADP report was well in excess of expectations, putting investors on notice for a potentially strong number when non-farms are published. However, with expectations already raised it will need to be a solid number for the dollar in order to see strong buying. In addition, wage numbers still need to move higher at a much faster pace, although this of course brings with it inflation concerns.

In addition, a stronger NFP report will increase the possibility of a faster pace of tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did raise rates at its last meeting, the relatively cautious wording of the statement did little for the dollar. But in the wake of fresh comments about interest rates still being below the neutral level, a healthy beat on NFPs tomorrow only boosts the chances of more hawkish Fed policy.

Non-farm payrolls

Discover what the non-farm payrolls report is –
including the date of the next release, and
why it’s important to traders.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Find articles by analysts

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.