Rand Report

USD/ZAR: the bulls appear eager

In our last note it was highlighted that the USD/ZAR currency pair had:

  1. broken out of the medium term range and broader triangle consolidation
  2. was trading firmly above the 20 (red line), 50 (green line) and 200 (blue line) day simple moving averages suggesting the underlying trend bias to be firmly up
  3. the stochastic oscillator was sitting in overbought territory but was NOT considered an indication to trade against the underlying uptrend

From a trading perspective, we were hoping for:

  1. a price pullback from overbought territory to provide an opportunity for long entry
  2. a move towards R13.35/$ was considered the long entry opportunity
  3. a deeper pullback through R13.15/$ (a close below) would have negated the suggested opportunity
  4. the upside resistance target was R13.98/$

 

Over the last week the USD/ZAR did pull back to a low of R13.42/$. The fact that the retracement was shallow and brief (not getting as low as the R13.35/$ level) before the uptrend was resumed, shows buying enthusiasm i.e. an eagerness for the market to be long the dollar and short the ZAR. With this in mind our bullish view on the USD/ZAR is reinforced. The short term high at R13.77/$ becomes the obvious initial target favoured, a break of which considers R13.98/$ mark highlighted last week the next upside target favoured. A pullback towards the R13.42/$ is still considered a viable long entry opportunity for traders not already committed, although a move (close) below the now R13.30/$ trend line level is now considered as the failure level for the current setup. 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.

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