Rand Report

Emerging market currencies out of favour.

The rand has found some short term reprieve over the last few days, although appears to remain on a weakening trajectory in the medium to long term.

While domestic catalysts including weak GDP, a rate cut and a widening current account deficit have contributed to the local currency softening this year, the deprecation has followed risk off sentiment which has seen emerging market asset classes mostly under pressure as well. External narratives which have contributed to the moves include: diminishing carry trade opportunities as the US, European and British central banks adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy and trade war tensions which continue to threaten the state of global economic growth.

The below graph illustrates the currency performances of the dollar against BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) for both the Quarter and Half Year ending 30 June 2018.

USD Brics 05072018

 

The Rand

The trends for the rand against its developed market peers are suggesting continued weakness to come. The USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR pairings highlight these weakening trends as the currencies trade above the 20, 50 and 200 day simple moving averages (MA’s).

USD/ZAR

USD ZAR  05072018

The trends for the rand against its developed market peers are suggesting continued weakness to come. The USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR pairings highlight these weakening trends as the currencies trade above the 20, 50 and 200 day simple moving averages (MA’s).

EUR/ZAR

EUR ZAR 05072018

The EUR/ZAR setup is similar to that of the USD/ZAR setup. The EUR/ZAR price has been finding resistance around the R16.20/EUR level. A break of this level is expected to unlock a further move towards the next level of historical resistance considered at R16.65/EUR. In this breakout scenario, a close below R15.87/EUR might be considered as the failure level for the move. Only if the R15.60/EUR level is broken (with a close below), would we consider the short term trend to be changing direction.

GBP/ZAR

GBP ZAR 05072018

The GBP/ZAR price set up is slightly to the EUR/ZAR and USD/ZAR currency pairs, in that there is a clear short term consolidation in the form of a triangle. Should a break above the R18.30/GBP manifest, R18.90/GBP would be the favoured resistance target from the move. In this scenario a close below triangle support at R17.95/GBP may be used as the failure level for the trade. Only if the R17.75/GBP level is broken (with a close) would we consider the short term trend to be changing direction.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.

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