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Outlook 2018: bull market in home stretch

The bull market is in its most exciting phase, and it is not a time to be out of the market, according to Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International.

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The current equity bull market is in its ninth year, and in the last and most exciting phase of the upward stage of the cycle. It's 'not a time to be out of the market’, according to Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International. Indeed, this phase can give the best returns, he says.

Expectations of President Donald Trump’s tax reforms buoyed the market in 2017 and continue to do so this year. But therein lies a risk, Stevenson adds, in that they could stoke the US economy too much.

In December, the US president signed legislation containing $1.5 trillion of tax cuts.

Although the current bull market is the second longest, and second biggest in recent history, in Stevenson’s opinion it still has further to run. He does not expect it to end with recession. ‘Bull markets don’t really die of old age, they tend to be murdered by central banks’. 

The risk he sees is that Trump’s tax reforms will overheat a US economy that is picking up, amid a strengthening global economy. And this might lead to a return of inflation, as well as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates faster and further than expected.

The latest figures from the International Monetary Fund show global growth running at 3.7%. Two to three quarter-point rate rises are expected in the US this year.

Company earnings in the US are rising but this is needed, Fidelity’s investment director said, as price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) are climbing towards the heady levels of the Dotcom bubble.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.