Trade Insights

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Trade insight example

Aspen Pharmcare Holdings Ltd

9 December 2014 

We highlighted a potential head and shoulders, labelled L, H & R. Confirmation of the pattern is a break of the neckline support (39470c), and the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head (37443c).

Further support can be found at 38700c. If the share price trades above the right shoulder (labelled R), one would consider the head and shoulder pattern to have failed and an indication that the original upward trend will resume.

Please note that the overall bias is to the upside with the long-term trend remaining to the upside with the share trading well above its 200 day moving average. Short-term weakness could see traders using it as an opportunity to re-enter that trend.

Important to watch the rand as 40% of group’s revenue is international and the rand weakness helps booster the share price. Rand surges to 2008 low yesterday; the general underlying local economic conditions remain weak with risks to economic growth evident in increased load shedding.

The rand remains the wildcard to numerous rand hedge shocks listed on the JSE. Expectations around the timing and pace of the US hiking cycle will have a commensurate knock on impact to the rand and will drive expectations around monetary policy domestically. - Travis Robson, Premium Client Manager

Aspen Pharmcare Holdings Ltd, 9/12/2014

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