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US dollar mixed week leaves key uptrends intact

The US dollar saw a mixed week against ASEAN currencies; broadly speaking, dominant uptrends remain the key focus and where to for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/THB, USD/PHP?

Source: Bloomberg

Singapore dollar technical outlook – neutral

The US dollar ended little changed against the Singapore dollar this past week. This brought USD/SGD’s rise since the August low (1.3666) to a pause. A potential falling trendline might be forming from July.

Meanwhile, rising support from February is keeping the broader uptrend intact. The lack of meaningful progress last week is thus offering a neutral setting this week. Clearing the August swing high exposes the July peak at 1.4096. Otherwise, near-term support is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 1.3881. Further losses from there would place the focus on August lows.

USD/SGD daily chart

Source: TradingView

Indonesian rupiah technical outlook – slightly bearish

The US dollar cautiously weakened against the Indonesian rupiah last week. This follows the emergence of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Further downside confirmation has been achieved, opening the door to losses ahead.

However, keep an eye on the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below. It could come into play as key support, maintaining the broader upside focus. Otherwise, the August low at 14670 would be next. Confirming a breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 14901 would likely shift the outlook increasingly bullish as the July high at 15030 comes into focus.

USD/IDR daily chart

Source: TradingView

Thai baht technical outlook – slightly bullish

The US dollar barely inched higher against the Thai baht this past week. However, USD/THB was unable to clear the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 36.1613. Still, the bounce since early August remains in play, offering a slightly bullish bias. Up ahead lies the critical 36.738 – 36.949 resistance zone.

Passing it with conviction would offer a stronger bullish view. That would expose the 78.6% extension at 37.3345. Otherwise, a turn lower places the focus on the 100-day SMA. It could hold as support and maintain the broader upside focus.

USD/THB daily chart

Source: TradingView

Philippine peso technical outlook – neutral

The US dollar traded relatively flat against the Philippine peso last week. Prices are cautiously trying to push higher towards the July peak at 56.527, but progress has been slow. Beyond that level is the 2005 peak at 56.61. Confirming a breakout above this level could open the door to a bullish bias, placing the focus on the 38.2% Fibonacci extensions at 57.146.

In the event of a turn lower, the 55.10 – 55.34 support zone will likely be key to watch. A breakout under it, as well as the 50-day SMA, would offer a bearish bias. Such an outcome exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 54.48.

USD/PHP daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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