South Africa 40 Cash Index update and cash adjustment reminder
The South Africa 40 Cash Index will note that the index will adjust for a (large) dividend in the underlying market on Tuesday 14 March, currently expected at 260.8 points.
The South Africa 40 Cash Index reversal (circled blue) off the 72840-resistance level has seen the price crashing through support at 70700 and now testing the 69240 level.
We do still consider the longer-term trend to be up, as suggested by the price trading firmly above the 200-day simple moving average (200MA) (blue line). However, the short to medium term correction thereof has continued with 69240 now considered a key level in the short term.
The price is currently trying to form an intraday reversal off this level, although is likely to see the success or failure thereof into the US inflation data later this (Tuesday 14 March) afternoon.
A downside break of the 69240 level (confirmed with a close below), would consider 66400 as the next support target from the move. We are however still not looking to short a move lower while we consider the longer-term trend to be up.
Our preference is to look for long entry in the scenario that the 69240 level holds, and a bullish reversal can move the price to close back above the 70700-resistance level. In this scenario 72840 the next upside resistance target from the move.
If the 69240 level does not hold and a downside break of the level ensues, we would be looking for a bullish price reversal closer to the 66400-support level for long entry consideration.
Only on a move below this level and the 200MA would we reassess our bias to trades on the index.
Large cash adjustment (dividend) expected
Traders of the South Africa 40 Cash Index will note that the index will adjust for a (large) dividend in the underlying market on Tuesday the 14th of March, currently expected at 260.8 points.
Key data this week
The table below highlights key data points which have the propensity to induce short term volatility on a macro level and in turn influence the South Africa 40 Cash Index.
The US inflation (CPI) and European Central Bank rates decision are expected to carry the highest potential impacts to short term market moves.
14 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
CPI m/m |
0.50% |
14 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
CPI y/y |
6.40% |
14 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.40% |
15 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
GBP |
Annual Budget Release |
|
15 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core PPI m/m |
0.50% |
15 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
2.30% |
15 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
-5.8 |
15 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.70% |
15 March 2023 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
3.00% |
16 March 2023 |
3:15pm |
EUR |
Main Refinancing Rate |
3.00% |
16 March 2023 |
3:15pm |
EUR |
Monetary Policy Statement |
|
16 March 2023 |
3:45pm |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|
17 March 2023 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
67 |
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