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Earnings look ahead – BP, Sainsbury’s, Imperial brands

A look to company earnings next week.

Sainsbury's
Source: Bloomberg

BP (Q1 earnings 2 May)

Quarterly figures are expected to show healthy improvement at BP, with revenue expected to rise 34% and earnings per share to more than double. In comparison to last year, the oil price is solidly higher, and with OPEC hinting at more cuts the risk of another slump in oil prices appears reduced. Refining margins have remained resilient, and coupled with higher oil prices have meant that the outlook is relatively stable. In the longer term, oil prices need to move firmly back above $50, and higher, to really create a bullish environment for the shares, but BP appears to have weathered the storm.

Since the beginning of the year, the shares have fallen sharply from the $5.20 high. They have found some support at 440p, but will need to break above 460p to break the downtrend from the 2017 high. Below 440p, 432p and then 406p come into view as support. 

Sainsbury’s (full-year earnings 3 May)

The big question for Sainsbury's shareholders at the moment is whether the supermarket is managing to get its Argos acquisition working for it. Argos could well bring in more customers, but the market has not really woken up to the possibilities yet. It is up to Sainsbury’s to spin the right kind of story in its earnings and outlook to convince investors that positive effects are being seen. The recent bounce in the pound has probably come too late to have any positive effects for the firm yet, but it will make the shares more attractive to international investors. A yield of 4.4% means Sainsbury’s remains one to watch for income investors.

The 273p – 280p area has proved to be a major stumbling block for the shares since the beginning of the year essentially stalling what has been a steady uptrend from the summer 2016 lows. A breakout above here clears the way to 294p and the April 2016 high. A drop back would first find support at around 253p, and then further losses would put us back to the rising trendline off the July 2016 low.  

Imperial Brands (half-year 3 May)

Imperial Brands remains a prudent play in an uncertain environment – growth stocks have been the favourites of late, but a shift in markets over the summer to a more cautious outlook could benefit the stolid players such as Imperial. Its recent move into e-cigarettes provides it with an extra string to its bow, helping to boost cash flow and protect the all-important dividend.

A rally in Imperial Brands in the middle of April took it to the downtrend line off the summer highs. The pullback following this saw the price move back to the rising trendline from the December lows. This narrowing wedge means that at some point we will see a significant breakout in volatility, with the price either continuing its move higher, or turning lower once more.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.