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UK General Election more likely than Theresa May’s Brexit deal, JP Morgan says

The investment bank downgraded the probability of Britain leaving the EU under the terms laid out in Theresa May’s Brexit deal, arguing that a general election and an extension to Article 50 is now the most likely outcome.

JP Morgan has revised its Brexit forecasts, downgrading the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU under the terms laid out in Theresa May's revised Brexit deal, with the investment bank increasing the probability that the UK will hold a general election and vote to extend Article 50.

In a note to investors, JP Morgan analyst Malcolm Barr gave May’s deal a 20% chance of being passed in parliament, down from 35%.

General election likeliest next step in Brexit process

Of all the possible outcomes listed by JP Morgan, the most likely course of action for the UK to take in the eyes of the US investment bank is for Britain to hold a general election and extend Article 50 beyond the March 29 deadline to the latter half of 2019.

However, the French president Emmanuel Macron warned May on Thursday that the UK could end up bailing out of the bloc without a deal if she fails to find support for her revised Brexit deal in a vote next week.

Theresa May asks Brussels for a short delay to Brexit

With just eight days until the March 29 Brexit deadline, the British prime minister made a last-minute request to delay the UK’s departure date until June 30.

EU leaders are expected to grant May a short extension to secure an orderly Brexit, but only on if she is able to get her revised deal approved by MPs in the House of Commons – an unlikely outcome considering that she has failed twice before.

‘We must be clear, to ourselves, our British friends and our people,’ Macron said on arrival at the 24-hour EU summit.

‘Firstly, we’ve been negotiating the withdrawal agreement for two years. It cannot be renegotiated. Secondly, in the event of another no vote in Britain, we will be heading towards a no deal. Everyone knows it,’ he added.


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