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Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

A rising dollar is putting pressure on commodities, with gold and oil both falling.

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold dips but continues to outpace Dow

Yesterday’s spike in stocks meant the gap in performance since January between gold and indices has been narrowed somewhat, but the yellow metal is still outpacing the Dow Jones in gains for the year. A drop yesterday brought out fresh buyers, and the price is still solidly within the uptrend from the December lows.

As long as $1235 holds and the price bounces off the trendline then more gains are to be expected. Longer-term, the price must break the 200-day simple moving average at $1261.

WTI under pressure

Talk of rising output, and reports that Russian February output was unchanged from a month earlier have combined with the rising US dollar to put pressure on WTI prices. Bears should avoid getting too excited unless we see a firm drop through $52, but for now they do have the upper hand. Support since mid-February has been found around $53.20, so it will need a break below here to really get momentum going.

The failure to push above $54, which has been the case really since early December, raises the possibility that we could be on the cusp of a bigger drop. 

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.