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ASX 200: three stocks to watch as of February 13

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market and this week's real estate stocks to watch, updated as of 13 of February, 3.00 pm AEDT.

Source: Bloomberg

ASX 200 Overview

The ASX 200 fell 57 points (-0.76%) on Friday to close at 7490, locking in a 1.5% loss for the week. It was the ASX 200’s first loss in six weeks and came after Tuesday’s hawkish RBA Board meeting followed by a blistering 48 hours of hawkish Fed Speak.

Reacting to the threat of another ratchet higher in interest rates, the Real Estate (-5.69%) and IT Sectors (-4.20%) were the worst hit, closely followed by the Healthcare (-3. 63%) and Utility (-4.20) Sectors.

In this week's Three stocks to watch, we review the recent news and charts of three ASX-listed Real Estate type stocks facing an uncertain macro environment that includes higher interest rates, inflation, and falling property prices.

  • REA (REA)

Last week, REA Group, the online Real Estate advertising company, reported its half-year 2023 results. REA reported a 5% increase in revenue to $617m and NPAT of $205 million, down 9%YoY.

The company noted that uncertainty had driven listings lower by 16% in Sydney and 15% in Melbourne and said that its FY2023 positive operating jaws might not be achieved.

The share price of REA, which fell 33% in 2022, is eying the all-important 200-day moving average (MA) at $118.83.

Providing the share price holds of REA holds above $118.13 allow for a rebound towards the recent $128.50 high. However, should the share price see a sustained break of $118.83, it would warn of a test of support near the December $107.39 low.

REA Group daily chart

Source: TradingView
  • Mirvac (MGR)

Last week Mirvac Group reported its half-year 2023 earnings, which proved to be a mixed bag. Mirvac’s operating profit increased by 3% to $305 million, beating expectations. However, the company’s statutory profit fell by 62% to $215 million, driven by lower property revaluations.

While its FY2023 operating guidance of at least 15.5 cents and 2,500 residential settlements was reaffirmed, the company warned of an uncertain future caused by rising interest rates and high inflation. Still, it noted the return of migration as a driver for the economy.

The share price of Mirvac, which fell 26% in 2022, cratered last week to finish almost 7% lower at $2.27, a decline it has extended in the early part of this week.

There is a strong layer of support between $2.20 and $2.10, which includes the 200-day MA, uptrend support and a cluster of highs in August 2022. This level needs to hold to keep the uptrend from the October low intact and to prevent a retest of the October $1.87 low.

Mirvac Group daily chart

Source: TradingView
  • Goodman Group (GMG)

Real Estate heavyweight Goodman Group is due to report its first-half earnings this Thursday, with the market looking for the company to deliver NPAT of $861.7 million.

The share price of Goodman fell over 40% in 2022 from $26.96 to $15.61, reflecting the macro headwinds outlined above. The recovery to this year’s $21.06 high appears to be a countertrend and should the share price fall below the support coming from the 200-day MA at $18.66, it would warn the corrective rebound of 2023 is complete and of a retest of the October $15.61 low.

Goodman Group daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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