Skip to content

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Asia update: as Japanese yen gained after BoJ hinted intervention, what could this mean for USD/JPY?

Japanese yen rose on Wednesday as Bank of Japan hinted intervention; this might be a sign that policy could remain loose for the time being and BoJ hasn’t always been successful with intervention, will USD/JPY fall?

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese yen gains as possible BoJ intervention looms

The Japanese yen gained 1.08% against the US dollar on Wednesday, which is a notable achievement given JPY’s persistent depreciation since 2021. What was the cause of this move? Reports crossed the wires that the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check, opening the door to market intervention for the first time since 1998. Traders were spooked. Should they be?

Prior to this event, various Japanese government and monetary policy officials have been offering verbal jabs against the currency for some time. Physical action was absent. At the end of the day, the BoJ remains in a very different position compared to its major peers. The central bank continues to implement ultra-loose policy: interest rates are negative, quantitative easing persists and yield curve control remains.

Meanwhile, virtually every other major central bank has been tightening policy. This rising divergence between them and Japan is what is likely weighing against the Japanese yen. All you have to do is look at government bond yield spreads to capture the story. Wednesday’s move might have been seen as officials taking the next step to help tame the yen.

Funny enough, a push for intervention could also be interpreted as a sign that the Bank of Japan might keep policy loose. Former board member Goushi Kataoka mentioned that at the earliest, a BoJ policy shift might come by the middle of next year. It seems that in the interim, the government may have to use other measures to help hold up the yen.

Historically speaking, the Bank of Japan wasn’t always successful with intervention. From about January 1999 through April 2000, the central bank intervened to sell the yen at least 18 times (with some help from the Fed and ECB once) to help stop its appreciation. The currency still gained. Granted, that was an example of when the yen was too strong, but a central bank needs credibility to be effective.

USD/JPY daily chart

On the daily chart, USD/JPY is eyeing a near-term rising trendline from August. Negative RSI divergence is present, showing that upside momentum is fading. That may open the door to a turn lower. A breakout under this line would expose the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) which could reinstate the dominant upside focus down the road. Otherwise, clearing 144.99 exposes the 1998 high at 147.65.

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Start trading forex today

Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.

  • Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
  • Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile

Find out more

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Monday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.

You might be interested in…

<h3>How much does trading cost?</h3>
<h3>Find out about IG</h3>
<h3>Plan your trading</h3>

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.