Anglo American Plc Q3 update and share price outlook

Key Takeaways:

1. Copper production increased significantly by 42%, driven by the ramp-up of production at Quellaveco in Peru.
2. Nickel production, on the other hand, decreased by 7% to 9,300 tonnes due to lower grades and planned maintenance at Barro Alto.
3. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) operations showed a decrease of 3% to 665,800 ounces, mainly due to lower production from Mogalakwena and Amandelbult.
4. The diamond sector experienced a significant decrease of 23% to 7.4 million carats. This was primarily due to the planned reduction in South Africa as Venetia transitions to underground operations and starts the ramp-up of production, as well as planned maintenance in Botswana.
5. Iron ore production decreased by 4% to 15.4 million tonnes, primarily due to a 7% decrease at Minas-Rio caused by planned plant maintenance. However, the production guidance for 2023 remains unchanged.

Q3 production overview and outlook

While Anglo American Plc has faced some challenges in Q3 2023, the increase in copper production and the steady guidance for 2023 across all sectors show a relatively positive outlook in challenging economic conditions.

Anglo American Plc has released its Q3 2023 highlights, showing mixed results across various sectors. Copper production showed an impressive increase of 42%, largely due to the ramp-up of production at Quellaveco in Peru. This increase was offset by a 4% decrease in production in Chile, resulting in an overall increase in copper production to 209,100 tonnes. The 2023 copper guidance has been revised to 830,000–870,000 tonnes, a slight decrease from the previous forecast.

In contrast, nickel production decreased by 7% to 9,300 tonnes, reflecting lower grades and planned maintenance at Barro Alto. Despite this decrease, the operational improvements at Codemin were heartening. The production and unit cost guidance for nickel in 2023 remains unchanged.

The Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) operations showed a decrease of 3% to 665,800 ounces. This decrease was due to lower production from Mogalakwena and Amandelbult, offset slightly by a 2% increase in joint operations due to improved grades at Modikwa. Despite these fluctuations, the production guidance for 2023 remains unchanged at 3.6–4.0 million ounces.

The diamond sector showed a significant decrease of 23% to 7.4 million carats. This was primarily due to the planned reduction in South Africa as Venetia transitions to underground operations and begins the ramp-up of production, as well as planned maintenance in Botswana. Despite this decrease, the production guidance for 2023 remains unchanged at 30–33 million carats.

Iron ore production also decreased by 4% to 15.4 million tonnes, primarily due to a 7% decrease at Minas-Rio, driven by planned plant maintenance. Despite these challenges, the production guidance for 2023 remains unchanged at 57–61 million tonnes, indicating a positive outlook for the future.

Steelmaking coal production decreased by 21% to 4.4 million tonnes, impacted by challenging conditions at Moranbah and the ramp-up of Grosvenor. Despite these challenges, the production guidance for 2023 remains unchanged at 16–19 million tonnes.

While Anglo American Plc has faced some challenges in Q3 2023, it's important to note the positive aspects. The increase in copper production and the steady guidance for 2023 across all sectors show a relative stable outlook in challenging economic conditions.

Broker ratings

As per Refinitiv data as of the 24th of October 2023, the average analyst rating for Anglo American Plc is a hold.