This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
$1180 supporting gold
The question that will be asked this morning is whether yesterday’s bottom at $1150 was the end of gold’s declines, or whether the top at $1220 was the peak for now.
For the moment, the latter view seems to hold sway. At the time of writing the metal is failing to keep above the $1200 level, though it is discovering a measure of support around the 200-hour MA at $1193. A failure to hold above yesterday’s close at $1206 would send a signal that weakness prevails in this market, with that view strengthened if gold endures yet another close below the 50-day moving average.
As yesterday $1180 is still big support for any move lower, while we continue to wait for an indication that gold wishes to retest the Monday peak at $1220.
Yesterday’s outside day in silver price action has given way to limited downside, but there is little appetite to head back towards $16.70.
The apparent indecisiveness of silver’s move today makes a person long for the days when it simply followed the July trendline lower, and while the price does sit above the trendline for now it does not yet seem to have a strong hold on the situation.
As ever, a close below the $16 level would be a sign that the situation has shifted back to a more bearish view, with downside targets at $15.50 and then $15. Meanwhile, a clear breakout above $16.70 puts the full focus of the effort back on a rally towards $17.50, the October high that proved such a barrier.
Brent meets resistance at $73
After yesterday’s bounce Brent prices are in retreat once again. The hourly chart shows that $73 is proving to be resistance, in a similar fashion to yesterday and last Friday. Without a clear move through $73 the likelihood is that we’ll see a move lower once more, potentially testing the low seen on Monday morning around $68.
WTI runs out of steam
A similar story applies in US light crude, which has run out of steam around $69.50. A drift lower appears to have begun, with a first area of support around the 50-hour at $67.50 and then onwards to Monday’s low at $64 itself.