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50-DMA supporting Gold
Those with a long-term view will be watching the weekly chart on gold, where the 20-week moving average is about to cross below the 50-week once again, ending gold’s brief bounce. Weekly stochastics are witnessing a rolling over as well, putting the emphasis to the downside.
On the daily chart the drop through $1300 means that the 50-day moving average at $1294 and then the 200-DMA at $1286 become support, while $1307 becomes resistance.
The daily relative strength index is declining as well, and while there is no close above the 20-DMA the view for gold remains bearish.
Silver outlook negative
Although holding above yesterday’s lows, the silver outlook appears negative as well.
The hourly chart shows a steady decline, and while yesterday’s low of $20.50 could provide some buying the fact that the intraday RSI is still not oversold means more downside is likely, possibly testing the low from 24-25 July around $20.30.
As I have noted before, the best hope lies in the ‘golden cross’ of the 50-DMA above the 200-DMA, which still seems on course to take place. In the meantime, the upside target remains $21.
Brent still stuck between $107-$108
The observations made yesterday still apply, namely that Brent finds itself stuck between $107 and $108, with the declining 20-DMA still containing any moves to the upside.
The daily RSI may be edging higher, slowly, but at least stochastics show a steady rise, which might incline some brave souls to the long side.
NYMEX situation unclear
NYMEX seems to be bouncing off its long-term trend this morning, even if the 20-DMA has crossed below the 100-DMA for the first time since February.
The daily RSI has risen slightly, but not enough to inspire confidence. Until we see a close above the 100-DMA at $102.33 the situation remains unclear.