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As Q4 begins on a positive tone, the similarities with 2011 are increasingly apparent. In 2011, Q4 represented the beginning of a recovery, and while we remain some way from that right now, there are signs of strength returning.
FTSE recovery reaches double-bottom neckline
The FTSE has continued to storm higher, in extension of the bounce which I expected would ultimately end around 6070. The 6133 area represents the neckline of a double-bottom formation, and thus a break higher from here would point towards the possibility of a wider period of strength of the UK index.
As it stands, the 200-period (four-hour) SMA stands in the way of any further upside, and with the stochastic and MACD histogram both at clearly overbought levels, there is a good chance we could see a move lower from here. Therefore, for now I am looking for the price to sell off from the 200-period SMA, with 6070 the first level of support to watch out for. If the price manages to break this SMA convincingly, then it would point towards a continuation of this incredibly consistent rally.
Ultimately, the ability to break higher from here has significant connotations for medium-term prospects, and an inability to push back below 5878 would begin to turn this chart into a somewhat more bullish one.