This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
spiking upwards. The uncertainties with the equity markets are forcing investors to seek shelter in other markets. China’s stock market has become one of the investment of choice amongst investors.
Shanghai composite’s underperformance shows a low correlation of 0.117 to the S&P 500, and a low forward PE ratio of eight, which is below the average of 17 for the past three-years, making it attractive.
The Chinese leader’s vow to revamp the capital markets to shows that the country is moving towards the right direction, being in-line with international standards. Fears of a slowing economic growth in China, which was one of the reasons underpinning the stock market, should have abated.
The Hang Seng China index show shares in the mainland are trading at a discount to Hong Kong equivalent. President Xi Jinping has prepped the market to expect slower growth next year by 0.1 percentage point to 7.5%. Given the official’s track record this year in successfully managing market expectation, this slower growth will be priced in.
Last night, the stronger economic data from the US was a surprise. It has erased the uncertainty from Wednesday’s weak ISM services and strong ADM employment. The Q3 GDP growth is revising to 3.6%, the expectation was 3.1%. The initial jobless claims have dropped to 298k, compared to last week’s 316k. However, the headline number masks some of the underlying weakness in the economy.
The GDP upward revision is backwards looking, mainly due to an inventory build-up, therefore Q4 will be difficult. Seasonal variation makes the jobless claims difficult to read, despite the better number, economists still see the trend of firing continuing and it won’t have an impact on the low participation rate.
Regardless, this has sent yields on the ten-year Treasury note higher to 2.872, at an 11-week high. The expectation of higher rates, going over the 3% level is putting pressure on the rate sensitive stocks, such as telecom and housing stocks. The higher rates would also impact the housing market going forward, and add pressure to the declining new home sales.
The importance of job creation in the US economy means all eyes will be on the employment data tonight.