Macro Intelligence: which ASX gold miners should investors watch during gold's record run?

This video and article was created on 15 April for IG audiences by ausbiz.

Written by Juliette Saly

Going for gold

In this week’s edition of IG Macro Intelligence, we take a deep dive into the record high gold price and ASX stocks to watch to capture the momentum.

Mining momentum

Gold has seen a powerful rally in recent months, reaching record-high prices and reinforcing its status as a key safe-haven asset.

The surge in the precious metal has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, increased demand from central banks, and shifting monetary policy expectations.

Gold price surges to $3222 in Q1 2025

Expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates have also helped give gold a boost. As real yields drop, gold looks more appealing compared to investments that pay interest. On top of that, a softer US dollar is making gold cheaper for international buyers, adding to the demand.

All these factors together have pushed gold to record highs, reflecting ongoing investor jitters and a growing desire for stability in an unpredictable global environment.

Striking gold

The record momentum in the gold price has analysts tipping further M&A activity in the ASX gold sector.

Mid-tier producers and single-asset miners are the most likely targets, as larger producers look to enhance their production capabilities.

Key recent deals and developments in the sector include:

• Northern Star Resources is progressing its $5 billion acquisition of De Grey Mining, with minority shareholder Gold Road Resources agreeing to vote in favour
• This represents one of the most significant deals in Australia's gold sector since 2023
• Ramelius Resources has put forward a $2.4 billion takeover offer for Spartan Resources, aiming to create the largest mid-tier pure-play gold producer on the ASX
• Gold Road Resources rejected a $3.3 billion takeover offer from South African miner Gold Fields, stating the proposal undervalued the company
• Analysts expect this consolidation trend to continue while gold prices remain elevated

Golden opportunities

• Newmont

Analysts at UBS recently upgraded their target price for the US-listed shares of Newmont to US$60 from US$50 a share, adding a "Buy" recommendation on the stock, up from their previous "Neutral" call.

Analysts are equally bullish on the Aussie listed CDIs, with the average recommendation a BUY with a target price of $91.42, according to Refinitiv data, suggesting a further 6% upside.

UBS analysts claim Newmont has lagged the spot price by around 40% over five years, meaning it is trading at a discount. UBS expects Newmont's planned divestments could raise US$3.2 billion, with around US$3 billion expected to be returned to shareholders through buybacks following its Newcrest merger.

ASX Tradewatch data show NEM trading in a strong bullish trend, with the five-day moving average above the 50-day, and both the 20-day and 200-day averages trending upward.

Newmont historical trends and price targets

• Gold Road Resources

Goldman Sachs has a BUY recommendation on Gold Road Resources, recently increasing its price target to $3.40 from $2.80, suggesting the stock can rally another 11% from current levels.

Goldman Sachs expects the Q1 trend of gold equities outperforming the price of the precious metal to continue, driven by a combination of rising gold prices and easing unit costs. It cites GOR as particularly well-positioned, thanks to its unhedged exposure and leverage to improved pricing.

Gold Road Resources historical trends and price targets

• Ramelius Resources

Meanwhile, Brian W.B. Chu from the Australian Gold Fund sees risks in the smaller end of town, but also potentially big benefits:

"I look for companies that have a strong cash balance. Therefore they don't need to raise capital anytime soon. They've got advanced projects whereby it's confirmed to deposit quite a good proportion of indicated resources and hopefully reserves as well, so that they're close to development. Hopefully the company has secured financing so that they are able to send in the construction vehicles, build the mine, and then away we go."

Ramelius Resources buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

One such company in Chu's radar is Black Cat Syndicate, which has more than tripled in value over the past year.

Black Cat Syndicate year-to-date chart

The future is golden

Amid the continued rally in the price of gold, Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their year-end price target to US$3700 per ounce.

This is a revision to their forecast made just a few weeks ago, at the end of March, of US$3300. The upgrade is due to the ongoing economic uncertainty, solid central bank demand for the physical metals and increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs which are continuing to rise amid global recession concerns.

Meanwhile, UBS analysts now expect gold to hit US$3500 next year, which is 23% above their previous forecasts. The analysts cite parallels amidst the current uncertainty to past crises like the Global Financial Crisis and Covid-19 pandemic.

Technical analyst Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities told ausbiz the charts are indicating gold has further to run:

"Gold has moved from $2000 an ounce to a bit over 3000. Feels like a big move. But compared to previous sort of major worldwide events, which I think we have to admit we're going through now with what Trump's trying to do with tariffs... we could be in for another one of these sort of major moves for gold."