2026 outlook

New year, new highs

2026 has begun on a mostly firm note for investors, with the MSCI Asia Pacific and Dow Jones indexes hitting fresh records, along with strong gains in commodities such as gold, silver, copper and iron ore.

Gains in precious metals were helped by the United States (US) move to oust Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, which saw investors flock to safe havens.

The Australia 200 (S&P/ASX 200)  is around 4.6% below its all-time highs reached in October 2025, but many analysts remain bullish.

S&P/ASX 200 chart

Morgan Stanley’s Chris Nicol recently raised his 12-month S&P/ASX 200 target to 9250 points, implying a 6% gain this year.

Mathan Somasundaram from Deep Data Analytics is also running with the bulls.

New year, same themes

Artificial intelligence (AI) and commodities were among the major investing thematics in 2025, and it appears 2026 may be little different.

Nick Langley from ClearBridge Investments expects 2026 will be a strong year driven by the energy transition, climate resilience spending, and increased power demand from AI data centres.

Goodman Group (ASX:GMG)

Goodman Group remains a clear favourite for stock pickers trying to take advantage of the data-centre momentum.

Shares are down almost 20% over the past 12 months, and technical analysis suggests further downside with a long-term bearish trend exhibited in the stock's 20-day moving average (MA).

Goodman Group historical trends and price targets

However, analysts are bullish, with the average target price of $37.75 as surveyed by Refinitiv, suggesting the stock can rise another 24% from current levels.

St Wong from Prime Value Asset Management is among those looking for upside. Jason Teh from Vertium Asset Management believes there’s still ‘no clear winner’ from the AI thematic, but argues a potential commodity supercycle is a sure-fire bet for Australian investors.

Diversified miners BHP and Rio Tinto – which recently hit a record high – have solid exposure to copper, while exposure to aluminium may also benefit investors given it’s often used as a partial substitute for copper and both commodities are exposed to the same structural AI-driven investment cycle.

Alcoa Corp (ASX:AAI)

Teh believes Alcoa Corp is the best ‘pure play’ for Australian investors.

ASX-listed CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs) are up around 58% over the past 12 months, after the American aluminium giant joined the ASX in July 2024 following the acquisition of Alumina.

Alcoa Corp daily candlestick chart

ASX Tradewatch data show shares in a strong bullish trend, as confirmed by multiple indicators, specifically the 200-day MA, which is trending higher.

Alcoa Corp historical trends and price targets

Analysts are mixed on the outlook for Alcoa’s CDIs, with the average recommendation a 'buy' according to Refinitiv. However, its target price is set at $71.25, suggesting the stock could fall more than 20% from current levels.

Ord Minnett analysts recently downgraded the stock to 'hold' from 'buy' with a target price of $71.50.

Corporate bonds and alternatives

Corporate bonds are another exciting opportunity for investors in 2026, according to Bank of China’s Mark Todd and TWC Invest’s John Birkhold. Birkhold told ausbiz businesses that are long-term assets in nature and cash generative offer a very likely return.

BTC Markets believes Bitcoin has shaken off its holiday slumber, after falling around 13% over the past 12 months, to break out of weeks of tight consolidation, testing resistance around US$95,000 a coin.

Bisher Khudeira from Stormrake says traders and options desks are positioning for the break back above US$100,000.

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart

Turbulence ahead?

So where are the bears?

A recent Deutsche Bank survey of almost 450 analysts, economists and investors was mostly positive on the 2026 outlook, however ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflation and turmoil at the Federal Reserve (Fed) could all create turbulence.

However, staying the course - could prove most lucrative.